France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102

1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105

Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615

3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102

Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Metz
Reims		26.1%
45.2%		28.7%
+450
-125
+485
-150
1
0		-1.72676-1.81775-1.34209
Angers
Lorient		38.2%
35.3%		26.6%
+280
+120
+245
+125
0
0		-1.22503-1.19789-1.32580
Bordeaux
Rennes		33.3%
40.2%		26.5%
+650
-230
+645
-240
0
6		-0.39282-0.39771-0.91222
Brest
Paris Saint-Germain		5.9%
84.9%		9.2%
+1200
-375
+1000
-415
0
2		-0.25643-0.26523-0.16340
Lens
Saint-Etienne		28.1%
47.1%		24.8%
-115
+320
-110
+295
2
1		-0.66122-0.69631-1.26819
Nantes
Nice		35.6%
38.8%		25.6%
+405
-135
+415
-150
1
2		-0.58668-0.56333-0.94750
Paris Saint-Germain
Lyon		68.5%
16.2%		15.3%
+125
+215
+125
+235
1
1		-1.34396-1.32148-1.88000
Monaco
Nantes		39.8%
35.2%		25.0%
+100
+315
+100
+300
0
0		-1.25822-1.25632-1.38605
Strasbourg
Metz		38.8%
33.8%		27.4%
-135
+395
-140
+370
2
0		-0.58352-0.59018-0.94688
Nice
Brest		35.9%
39.0%		25.0%
+165
+180
+135
+195
3
0		-1.00027-0.90342-1.02357
Rennes
Lens		48.7%
26.1%		25.2%
+180
+160
+170
+160
0
1		-0.98827-1.00343-1.34293
Marseille
Bordeaux		39.8%
33.9%		26.3%
-150
+415
-175
+450
1
0		-0.54535-0.50149-0.92221
Brest
Troyes		46.3%
27.7%		26.0%
+210
+150
+205
+150
1
1		-1.22136-1.18061-1.34750
Nantes
Saint-Etienne		37.2%
36.2%		26.6%
+215
+145
+210
+145
1
0		-1.18016-1.17847-0.98803
Lens
Nice		26.8%
50.2%		23.0%
+290
+100
+275
+100
1
2		-0.71597-0.74036-0.68890
Angers
Montpellier		29.0%
45.8%		25.3%
+300
+100
+285
+100
1
4		-0.72824-0.74156-0.78134
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.