France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Rennes
Monaco		33.9%
41.2%		24.9%
+230
+125
+230
+125
1
2		-0.84357-0.85170-0.88746
Reims
Marseille		29.2%
42.0%		28.8%
+545
-165
+540
-170
1
1		-1.43234-1.42155-1.24379
Metz
Lyon		20.5%
58.8%		20.8%
+840
-295
+800
-300
1
1		-1.73161-1.71630-1.57156
Paris Saint-Germain
Lorient		82.9%
6.6%		10.5%
-200
+600
-210
+575
1
1		-1.57799-1.55074-2.25332
Lille
Bordeaux		48.1%
27.9%		24.1%
+100
+280
+100
+315
3
2		-0.72602-0.71172-0.73212
Monaco
Paris Saint-Germain		8.6%
82.5%		8.9%
+600
-215
+550
-230
0
2		-0.40509-0.41059-0.19185
Marseille
Strasbourg		39.7%
33.4%		26.8%
+225
+133
+220
+130
2
0		-1.21342-1.21224-0.92314
Bordeaux
Troyes		53.3%
23.0%		23.6%
+250
+120
+250
+110
2
1		-1.27450-1.30324-0.62852
Nice
Rennes		29.5%
46.1%		24.4%
+330
-110
+340
-120
2
1		-1.48775-1.53090-1.22000
Lorient
Metz		30.3%
42.5%		27.2%
+235
+140
+225
+140
1
4		-0.91252-0.92637-0.85557
Lyon
Lille		32.9%
42.0%		25.1%
+265
+115
+260
+115
0
0		-1.29762-1.28096-1.38170
Saint-Etienne
Reims		25.7%
47.7%		26.6%
+260
+125
+255
+125
0
2		-0.84697-0.85849-0.73967
Montpellier
Brest		40.8%
32.6%		26.5%
+250
+120
+245
+115
4
0		-1.28244-1.28630-0.89632
Lens
Nantes		25.1%
50.3%		24.6%
+175
+175
+175
+170
2
3		-1.04597-1.04344-0.68806
Lyon
Bordeaux		46.4%
29.5%		24.1%
-145
+375
-145
+350
2
2		-1.48391-1.49513-1.42097
Strasbourg
Nice		39.1%
35.6%		25.4%
+345
-110
+350
-115
3
0		-1.51814-1.55405-0.93915
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.