France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼-102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Angers
Reims		27.4%
45.5%		27.2%
+275
+130
+265
+130
2
1		-1.35592-1.34692-1.29525
Metz
Monaco		28.3%
48.2%		23.5%
+775
-250
+775
-285
0
4		-0.36465-0.35014-0.73021
Nantes
Lorient		38.9%
33.6%		27.5%
+190
+175
+175
+185
1
0		-1.09527-1.06372-0.94369
Rennes
Saint-Etienne		41.6%
32.1%		26.2%
-102
+295
-120
+325
5
0		-0.70917-0.65589-0.87599
Paris Saint-Germain
Lens		85.3%
5.3%		9.4%
-150
+406
-160
+390
1
1		-1.49732-1.51832-2.36149
Troyes
Lille		11.6%
72.4%		16.1%
+550
-175
+550
-195
1
2		-0.48553-0.46291-0.32346
Brest
Marseille		24.1%
52.8%		23.1%
+525
-165
+510
-195
2
1		-1.84712-1.85681-1.42292
Lille
Rennes		46.7%
28.1%		25.2%
+285
+100
+320
-110
2
1		-1.38123-1.48157-0.76066
Nice
Paris Saint-Germain		6.3%
85.5%		8.2%
+675
-245
+600
-250
0
0		-1.69516-1.69696-2.50250
Marseille
Nantes		43.1%
30.3%		26.6%
+145
+210
+140
+205
1
0		-0.92493-0.92193-0.84116
Reims
Lyon		25.3%
48.8%		25.8%
+580
-190
+525
-190
2
1		-1.94596-1.87921-1.37362
Lorient
Troyes		42.4%
29.9%		27.7%
+240
+130
+240
+125
0
2		-0.86346-0.86074-1.20681
Bordeaux
Strasbourg		34.3%
39.4%		26.3%
+340
-120
+360
-135
2
5		-0.63358-0.60144-0.93219
Montpellier
Metz		39.8%
32.6%		27.6%
+175
+170
+165
+165
3
1		-1.03682-1.02223-0.92201
Saint-Etienne
Brest		33.5%
40.8%		25.7%
+280
+105
+270
+100
0
1		-0.73886-0.74007-0.89644
Monaco
Angers		41.6%
34.4%		24.1%
+130
+230
+130
+240
3
1		-0.87031-0.87822-0.87813
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.