France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Troyes
Marseille		15.3%
65.1%		19.6%
+625
-220
+600
-225
0
1		-0.40789-0.41673-0.42957
Lyon
Montpellier		44.9%
29.9%		25.2%
-125
+320
-130
+310
1
0		-0.61904-0.61941-0.80113
Strasbourg
Monaco		33.2%
42.3%		24.5%
+370
-125
+365
-135
1
1		-1.36598-1.38633-1.40813
Rennes
Lorient		43.4%
29.8%		26.8%
-130
+400
-145
+390
2
0		-0.59853-0.57552-0.83432
Brest
Bordeaux		28.9%
46.5%		24.6%
+240
+125
+195
+140
2
1		-1.24695-1.13038-1.24102
Paris Saint-Germain
Saint-Etienne		82.8%
7.4%		9.9%
-360
+950
-310
+750
3
1		-0.28227-0.32760-0.18920
Metz
Nice		33.6%
40.8%		25.6%
+850
-270
+750
-265
1
0		-2.28190-2.19078-1.09061
Nantes
Lille		20.6%
58.2%		21.2%
+450
-145
+425
-140
1
1		-1.39058-1.33124-1.55202
Angers
Lens		43.2%
31.1%		25.7%
+425
-135
+400
-130
2
2		-1.35286-1.32302-1.35922
Saint-Etienne
Troyes		45.5%
28.5%		26.0%
+215
+135
+215
+130
1
0		-1.18384-1.19690-0.78750
Reims
Strasbourg		34.6%
36.0%		29.5%
+355
+100
+310
+100
1
1		-1.23760-1.22895-1.22183
Bordeaux
Metz		39.3%
33.8%		26.8%
+225
+135
+235
+125
3
3		-1.22953-1.22806-1.31591
Lorient
Angers		30.2%
44.1%		25.7%
+400
-120
+390
-130
0
1		-0.62538-0.62027-0.81792
Lens
Brest		27.3%
47.9%		24.7%
+110
+250
+125
+220
0
4		-1.29927-1.21295-0.73530
Montpellier
Rennes		33.7%
38.8%		27.5%
+650
-225
+575
-215
0
2		-0.40113-0.42889-0.94783
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		6.6%
83.0%		10.4%
+1550
-550
+1300
-525
1
3		-0.20223-0.22253-0.18632
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.