France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Lille
Monaco		47.3%
29.7%		23.0%
+305
+110
+290
+100
2
2		-1.24084-1.27307-1.47111
Lyon
Rennes		45.1%
29.7%		25.2%
+175
+156
+170
+150
1
4		-0.97154-0.96703-1.21325
Montpellier
Nice		40.1%
34.3%		25.5%
+550
-200
+550
-200
1
0		-1.90670-1.90019-0.91282
Strasbourg
Nantes		36.9%
35.8%		27.2%
+200
+163
+195
+155
2
2		-1.19753-1.18375-1.30012
Monaco
Reims		33.6%
39.7%		26.6%
-108
+340
-105
+315
0
0		-1.27407-1.25931-1.32257
Brest
Lorient		36.8%
36.3%		26.9%
+195
+155
+200
+145
2
1		-1.11541-1.14662-0.99883
Metz
Marseille		24.1%
51.5%		24.4%
+700
-230
+670
-245
0
0		-1.61495-1.60744-1.40981
Paris Saint-Germain
Bordeaux		78.2%
10.1%		11.7%
-360
+1035
-390
+900
3
2		-0.27055-0.27911-0.24609
Angers
Lille		20.0%
60.5%		19.5%
+550
-165
+495
-165
1
1		-1.41243-1.39731-1.63614
Troyes
Lens		29.2%
43.6%		27.2%
+485
-160
+450
-170
0
4		-0.51529-0.51099-0.82926
Lille
Paris Saint-Germain		13.8%
72.0%		14.2%
+725
-255
+765
-280
1
2		-0.36219-0.35462-0.32898
Marseille
Nice		45.6%
30.1%		24.3%
+160
+195
+160
+175
1
1		-1.22659-1.24396-1.41445
Paris Saint-Germain
Marseille		72.9%
12.8%		14.2%
-180
+465
-190
+460
0
0		-1.58807-1.58450-1.94890
Montpellier
Monaco		34.1%
41.0%		24.9%
+580
-215
+540
-210
1
3		-0.41916-0.43926-0.89262
Troyes
Reims		16.9%
58.3%		24.8%
+250
+145
+240
+135
2
1		-1.27963-1.27540-1.77543
Metz
Lens		41.6%
31.3%		27.1%
+650
-220
+675
-230
1
4		-0.41220-0.41291-1.16305
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.