France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+378
+102
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-104
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-250
+615
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-113
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bordeaux
Lorient		43.2%
30.8%		26.0%
+275
+115
+270
+110
1
1		-1.23032-1.24223-1.34619
Strasbourg
Rennes		32.8%
40.1%		27.0%
+460
-140
+455
-150
0
1		-0.55715-0.56005-0.91347
Lyon
Nice		52.8%
25.9%		21.4%
+140
+195
+165
+170
2
3		-1.11471-1.04276-1.35147
Brest
Lille		19.1%
61.6%		19.2%
+625
-200
+575
-205
1
1		-1.52179-1.51909-1.64766
Angers
Saint-Etienne		36.5%
37.9%		25.7%
+140
+205
+150
+210
2
2		-1.25110-1.19763-1.35930
Lorient
Marseille		21.6%
55.7%		22.7%
+540
-180
+525
-185
1
4		-0.47042-0.48101-0.58469
Lens
Montpellier		21.8%
55.4%		22.8%
+155
+195
+150
+190
0
1		-1.09853-1.11590-0.59048
Rennes
Metz		39.5%
32.8%		27.7%
-145
+470
-150
+500
3
0		-0.54165-0.52736-0.92763
Reims
Brest		40.6%
30.9%		28.5%
+245
+135
+250
+120
1
1		-1.20148-1.21456-1.25418
Nantes
Bordeaux		30.7%
43.3%		26.0%
+200
+180
+205
+160
1
1		-1.18951-1.18784-1.34854
Saint-Etienne
Strasbourg		28.3%
47.0%		24.7%
+240
+125
+235
+125
1
5		-0.84735-0.86034-0.75443
Nice
Troyes		48.6%
27.2%		24.2%
-115
+330
-105
+290
0
1		-1.49214-1.41005-1.30243
Monaco
Lyon		26.6%
52.3%		21.1%
+269
+105
+250
+105
0
2		-0.74651-0.75724-0.64890
Angers
Paris Saint-Germain		6.3%
84.6%		9.1%
+850
-265
+770
-300
1
2		-0.34170-0.33659-0.16692
Lyon
Saint-Etienne		54.7%
23.9%		21.4%
-135
+346
-135
+335
1
1		-1.48034-1.45813-1.54239
Marseille
Lille		27.8%
47.5%		24.7%
+250
+125
+250
+125
0
2		-0.84357-0.84807-0.74415
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.