France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 22 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/04/2021 08:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Lens	85.3% 5.3%	9.4%	-150 +406 -160 +390	1 1	-1.49732-1.51832	-2.36149
12/04/2021 06:00 PM	Troyes Lille	11.6% 72.4%	16.1%	+550 -175 +550 -195	1 2	-0.48553-0.46291	-0.32346
12/04/2021 04:00 PM	Brest Marseille	24.1% 52.8%	23.1%	+525 -165 +510 -195	2 1	-1.84712-1.85681	-1.42292
12/01/2021 08:00 PM	Lille Rennes	46.7% 28.1%	25.2%	+285 +100 +320 -110	2 1	-1.38123-1.48157	-0.76066
12/01/2021 08:00 PM	Nice Paris Saint-Germain	6.3% 85.5%	8.2%	+675 -245 +600 -250	0 0	-1.69516-1.69696	-2.50250
12/01/2021 08:00 PM	Marseille Nantes	43.1% 30.3%	26.6%	+145 +210 +140 +205	1 0	-0.92493-0.92193	-0.84116
12/01/2021 08:00 PM	Reims Lyon	25.3% 48.8%	25.8%	+580 -190 +525 -190	2 1	-1.94596-1.87921	-1.37362
12/01/2021 06:00 PM	Lorient Troyes	42.4% 29.9%	27.7%	+240 +130 +240 +125	0 2	-0.86346-0.86074	-1.20681
12/01/2021 06:00 PM	Bordeaux Strasbourg	34.3% 39.4%	26.3%	+340 -120 +360 -135	2 5	-0.63358-0.60144	-0.93219
12/01/2021 06:00 PM	Montpellier Metz	39.8% 32.6%	27.6%	+175 +170 +165 +165	3 1	-1.03682-1.02223	-0.92201
12/01/2021 06:00 PM	Saint-Etienne Brest	33.5% 40.8%	25.7%	+280 +105 +270 +100	0 1	-0.73886-0.74007	-0.89644
12/01/2021 06:00 PM	Monaco Angers	41.6% 34.4%	24.1%	+130 +230 +130 +240	3 1	-0.87031-0.87822	-0.87813
11/28/2021 07:45 PM	Troyes Marseille	15.3% 65.1%	19.6%	+625 -220 +600 -225	0 1	-0.40789-0.41673	-0.42957
11/28/2021 04:00 PM	Lyon Montpellier	44.9% 29.9%	25.2%	-125 +320 -130 +310	1 0	-0.61904-0.61941	-0.80113
11/28/2021 02:00 PM	Strasbourg Monaco	33.2% 42.3%	24.5%	+370 -125 +365 -135	1 1	-1.36598-1.38633	-1.40813
11/28/2021 02:00 PM	Rennes Lorient	43.4% 29.8%	26.8%	-130 +400 -145 +390	2 0	-0.59853-0.57552	-0.83432

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.