France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 21, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
Lorient
Toulouse 		61.8%
15.4%		22.8%
+365
+103
+360
+100
1.77
0.75		2.52
o2¼-115
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
Paris Saint-Germain
Nice 		88.2%
3.7%		8.1%
-270
+670
-265
+600
3.43
0.64		4.07
o3¼-121
u3¼+102
o3½+105
u3½-125
Games for Mar 20, 2026
Games for Mar 22, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Lorient		38.7%
35.6%		25.7%
+115
+255
+120
+240
0
1		-1.29894-1.27418-1.03153
Troyes
Lyon		12.5%
71.5%		16.0%
+900
-320
+875
-325
1
3		-0.30341-0.31618-0.33549
Strasbourg
Lens		47.9%
27.0%		25.1%
+250
+120
+260
+110
1
0		-1.27762-1.33207-0.73585
Paris Saint-Germain
Metz		80.8%
7.7%		11.5%
-400
+1100
-400
+950
2
1		-0.25740-0.27335-0.21364
Marseille
Angers		45.1%
29.7%		25.2%
+140
+215
+140
+220
0
0		-1.19773-1.18185-1.37789
Bordeaux
Montpellier		33.1%
40.4%		26.5%
+255
+110
+250
+105
3
3		-1.34404-1.33094-1.32882
Saint-Etienne
Monaco		27.6%
50.4%		22.0%
+647
-210
+625
-215
1
3		-0.41325-0.43360-0.68470
Brest
Nantes		31.7%
42.0%		26.3%
+290
+110
+255
+110
1
3		-0.76008-0.79264-0.86767
Reims
Lille		23.8%
50.3%		25.9%
+440
-125
+440
-135
1
2		-0.61389-0.60265-0.68659
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		13.0%
74.0%		13.0%
+847
-310
+900
-375
1
2		-0.30334-0.28467-0.30116
Rennes
Marseille		29.2%
44.5%		26.3%
+320
-105
+350
-125
0
2		-0.69229-0.63824-0.80910
Lorient
Reims		23.6%
49.2%		27.2%
+255
+125
+265
+115
0
0		-1.21190-1.21345-1.30118
Montpellier
Troyes		53.6%
22.1%		24.4%
+190
+150
+195
+135
1
1		-1.28287-1.30177-1.41227
Nantes
Angers		35.2%
38.3%		26.5%
+290
+115
+300
+105
4
1		-1.38258-1.43536-1.04353
Monaco
Nice		41.9%
34.7%		23.4%
+145
+215
+140
+210
2
2		-1.23491-1.23533-1.45303
Bordeaux
Saint-Etienne		41.4%
33.1%		25.5%
+330
-105
+350
-125
2
1		-1.47718-1.55452-0.88269
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.