France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 6, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Strasbourg
Reims 		28.3%
40.6%		31.0%
+120
+245
+115
+240
0.86
1.09		1.95
o2½-108
u2½-112
o2½-105
u2½-115
Toulouse
Marseille 		5.0%
82.8%		12.3%
+365
-130
+360
-135
0.51
2.64		3.15
o2½-120
u2¾-123
o2½-125
u2½+105
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Games for Apr 12, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nantes
Nice		33.9%
38.3%		27.8%
+610
-200
+585
-215
2
1		-1.98464-1.97371-1.08243
Rennes
Angers		39.5%
32.0%		28.5%
+110
+287
+110
+275
3
0		-0.77024-0.79125-0.92938
Brest
Toulouse		66.9%
12.9%		20.1%
+303
+103
+305
-105
4
2		-1.42391-1.45060-0.40148
Nice
Monaco		24.8%
52.2%		23.0%
+335
-115
+270
-105
1
2		-0.64666-0.71701-0.65003
Paris Saint-Germain
Saint-Etienne		88.5%
3.4%		8.1%
-410
+990
-435
+950
6
1		-0.25222-0.25684-0.12262
Marseille
Reims		35.3%
32.4%		32.3%
-152
+467
-170
+450
1
3		-1.75834-1.75308-1.12726
Lyon
Strasbourg		49.3%
24.9%		25.7%
+167
+167
+155
+160
2
4		-1.00857-1.00501-1.39006
Marseille
Paris Saint-Germain		4.9%
84.3%		10.8%
+810
-307
+800
-280
1
3		-0.31734-0.32701-0.17060
Toulouse
Strasbourg		6.8%
78.5%		14.7%
+183
+165
+195
+160
1
2		-1.00775-0.98631-0.24207
Reims
Brest		41.3%
28.3%		30.4%
+475
-150
+450
-150
0
0		-1.38119-1.36908-1.18951
Saint-Etienne
Montpellier		22.6%
51.8%		25.6%
+186
+144
+190
+140
2
0		-1.08518-1.11085-1.48572
Monaco
Angers		42.3%
31.9%		25.8%
-260
+680
-275
+700
2
0		-0.36042-0.35956-0.85979
Lille
Nantes		56.7%
19.3%		24.0%
-105
+325
+100
+290
0
1		-1.47959-1.41026-1.64325
Lyon
Nice		58.0%
19.9%		22.0%
+245
+115
+265
+100
2
0		-1.27286-1.34519-0.54404
Strasbourg
Nantes		35.8%
34.4%		29.8%
+140
+206
+140
+195
1
0		-0.90825-0.92402-1.02591
Angers
Brest		33.8%
38.2%		28.1%
+467
-145
+465
-140
0
2		-0.55208-0.56563-0.96299
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.98464 
Sportsbooks10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.97371 
DRatings10-1-0 (0.000)0-1.08243
0.90221
0.89128

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.