France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 3, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Toulouse
Strasbourg 		6.8%
78.5%		14.7%
+185
+132

0.57
2.43		3.00
o2½-120
u2½+100

Rennes
Lyon 		19.8%
56.4%		23.8%
+205
+118

0.91
1.71		2.62
o2¾-115
u2¾-105

Games for May 2, 2026
Games for May 4, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Nice
Marseille		19.8%
57.2%		22.9%
+378
-134
+360
-140
1
1		-1.40813-1.45839-1.47190
Nantes
Rennes		26.5%
45.5%		28.0%
+610
-208
+600
-208
1
2		-0.42696-0.42753-0.78735
Strasbourg
Lorient		44.2%
27.7%		28.1%
+240
+117
+275
+111
3
2		-1.25822-1.33256-0.81604
Monaco
Toulouse		77.5%
8.2%		14.3%
-140
+370
-135
+330
2
2		-1.46503-1.46067-1.94275
Paris Saint-Germain
Angers		87.6%
3.7%		8.7%
-385
+1100
-425
+1100
3
0		-0.26567-0.25696-0.13243
Nantes
Paris Saint-Germain		3.1%
88.8%		8.1%
+1450
-570
+1500
-700
0
3		-0.19538-0.18099-0.11935
Lyon
Paris Saint-Germain		6.5%
81.3%		12.2%
+840
-320
+760
-315
2
1		-2.26867-2.19562-2.73229
Brest
Nantes		28.8%
43.2%		27.9%
+212
+147
+205
+145
1
1		-1.21117-1.22578-1.27601
Rennes
Strasbourg		32.7%
37.7%		29.6%
-115
+300
-113
+295
3
0		-0.66000-0.67008-1.11752
Nice
Lille		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+560
-195
+525
-204
0
0		-1.53823-1.58197-1.68973
Marseille
Lorient		53.4%
21.0%		25.6%
-153
+388
-155
+380
0
2		-1.61893-1.61621-1.56098
Lorient
Lyon		11.5%
70.1%		18.4%
+458
-161
+450
-160
0
2		-0.51671-0.52868-0.35469
Lille
Toulouse		84.4%
4.5%		11.1%
+125
+253
+127
+240
4
0		-0.84574-0.86308-0.16953
Angers
Rennes		25.2%
48.3%		26.5%
+845
-290
+850
-315
1
2		-0.33028-0.32238-0.72853
Metz
Marseille		18.9%
56.3%		24.8%
+990
-393
+975
-400
1
3		-0.26203-0.26917-0.57465
Marseille
Monaco		38.6%
34.4%		27.0%
+255
+111
+260
+100
1
2		-0.76194-0.72677-1.06732
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.03110 
Sportsbooks31-1-1 (0.500)0-1.07283 
DRatings32-0-1 (0.833)0-1.02510
0.00601
0.04773

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)23.23.811.080.627.6%98.1%1.9%0.0%
2Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)26.28.33.582.171.1%99.9%0.1%0.0%
3Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)23.58.46.176.61.2%68.1%31.9%0.0%
4Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)21.15.911.074.30.1%33.9%66.1%0.0%
5Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)15.610.511.858.70.0%0.0%11.5%0.0%
6Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)16.810.111.161.40.0%0.0%67.0%0.0%
7Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)16.311.710.058.80.0%0.0%21.2%0.0%
8Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)13.612.212.253.10.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%
9Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)14.115.88.150.40.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
10Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)12.314.511.248.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
11Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)10.312.715.145.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
12Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)12.216.79.145.80.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)12.118.07.944.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
14Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)11.016.810.143.20.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%
15Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)11.518.38.242.70.0%0.0%0.0%0.4%
16Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)11.619.37.141.90.0%0.0%0.0%0.6%
17Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)10.118.79.239.50.0%0.0%0.0%3.6%
18Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)7.416.514.136.20.0%0.0%0.0%30.8%
19Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)9.020.98.035.10.0%0.0%0.0%64.5%
20Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)4.523.310.223.70.0%0.0%0.0%100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.