France Ligue 1 Predictions

Updated 7 sec ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/06/2025 06:45 PM	Toulouse Marseille	5.0% 82.8%	12.3%	+387 -138 +370 -140	2 3	-0.57959-0.58709	-0.18918
04/06/2025 03:15 PM	Strasbourg Reims	28.3% 40.6%	31.0%	+110 +262 +110 +245	1 0	-0.77549-0.79239	-1.26061
04/05/2025 07:05 PM	Lille Lyon	34.6% 37.6%	27.8%	+220 +131 +215 +125	1 2	-0.86398-0.85746	-0.97827
04/05/2025 05:00 PM	Monaco Brest	44.1% 30.2%	25.7%	-124 +350 -125 +335	1 2	-1.52956-1.51763	-1.19779
04/05/2025 03:00 PM	Angers Paris Saint-Germain	2.9% 89.8%	7.2%	+1900 -775 +1800 -825	0 1	-0.15645-0.16299	-0.10714
04/04/2025 06:45 PM	Nantes Nice	33.9% 38.3%	27.8%	+610 -200 +585 -215	2 1	-1.98464-1.97371	-1.08243
03/30/2025 03:15 PM	Rennes Angers	39.5% 32.0%	28.5%	+110 +287 +110 +275	3 0	-0.77024-0.79125	-0.92938
03/30/2025 01:00 PM	Brest Toulouse	66.9% 12.9%	20.1%	+303 +103 +305 -105	4 2	-1.42391-1.45060	-0.40148
03/29/2025 08:05 PM	Nice Monaco	24.8% 52.2%	23.0%	+335 -115 +270 -105	1 2	-0.64666-0.71701	-0.65003
03/29/2025 06:00 PM	Paris Saint-Germain Saint-Etienne	88.5% 3.4%	8.1%	-410 +990 -435 +950	6 1	-0.25222-0.25684	-0.12262
03/29/2025 04:00 PM	Marseille Reims	35.3% 32.4%	32.3%	-152 +467 -170 +450	1 3	-1.75834-1.75308	-1.12726
03/28/2025 07:45 PM	Lyon Strasbourg	49.3% 24.9%	25.7%	+167 +167 +155 +160	2 4	-1.00857-1.00501	-1.39006
03/16/2025 07:45 PM	Marseille Paris Saint-Germain	4.9% 84.3%	10.8%	+810 -307 +800 -280	1 3	-0.31734-0.32701	-0.17060
03/16/2025 04:15 PM	Toulouse Strasbourg	6.8% 78.5%	14.7%	+183 +165 +195 +160	1 2	-1.00775-0.98631	-0.24207
03/16/2025 04:15 PM	Reims Brest	41.3% 28.3%	30.4%	+475 -150 +450 -150	0 0	-1.38119-1.36908	-1.18951
03/16/2025 04:15 PM	Saint-Etienne Montpellier	22.6% 51.8%	25.6%	+186 +144 +190 +140	2 0	-1.08518-1.11085	-1.48572

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.67754
Sportsbooks	2	2-0-0 (1.000)	0	-0.68974
DRatings	2	1-1-0 (0.500)	0	-0.72490	-0.04735 -0.03515

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 04/26/21

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win	Champs League	Europa League	Relegation
1	Lille (21-3-10, 73 pts)	23.2	3.8	11.0	80.6	27.6%	98.1%	1.9%	0.0%
2	Paris Saint-Germain (23-8-3, 72 pts)	26.2	8.3	3.5	82.1	71.1%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	Monaco (22-7-5, 71 pts)	23.5	8.4	6.1	76.6	1.2%	68.1%	31.9%	0.0%
4	Lyon (19-5-10, 67 pts)	21.1	5.9	11.0	74.3	0.1%	33.9%	66.1%	0.0%
5	Lens (15-8-11, 56 pts)	15.6	10.5	11.8	58.7	0.0%	0.0%	11.5%	0.0%
6	Marseille (15-9-10, 55 pts)	16.8	10.1	11.1	61.4	0.0%	0.0%	67.0%	0.0%
7	Rennes (15-10-9, 54 pts)	16.3	11.7	10.0	58.8	0.0%	0.0%	21.2%	0.0%
8	Montpellier (12-11-11, 47 pts)	13.6	12.2	12.2	53.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
9	Nice (13-14-7, 46 pts)	14.1	15.8	8.1	50.4	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
10	Metz (11-13-10, 43 pts)	12.3	14.5	11.2	48.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Reims (9-11-14, 41 pts)	10.3	12.7	15.1	45.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
12	Angers (11-15-8, 41 pts)	12.2	16.7	9.1	45.8	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Brest (11-16-7, 40 pts)	12.1	18.0	7.9	44.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
14	Saint-Etienne (10-15-9, 39 pts)	11.0	16.8	10.1	43.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
15	Strasbourg (10-17-7, 37 pts)	11.5	18.3	8.2	42.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.4%
16	Bordeaux (10-18-6, 36 pts)	11.6	19.3	7.1	41.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%
17	Lorient (9-17-8, 35 pts)	10.1	18.7	9.2	39.5	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.6%
18	Nantes (6-15-13, 31 pts)	7.4	16.5	14.1	36.2	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	30.8%
19	Nimes (8-19-7, 31 pts)	9.0	20.9	8.0	35.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	64.5%
20	Dijon (3-22-9, 18 pts)	4.5	23.3	10.2	23.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%

Predictions Methodology

Ligue 1 is a twenty team league that plays in the 38 game season. The top three finishers make Champions League and the 4th place team makes Europa League. The two teams that finish at the bottom of the table are relegated to Ligue 2.