German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Werder Bremen 		32.0%
42.8%		25.2%
+265
-103

1.27
1.51		2.78
o3-101
u3-118

VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim 		30.6%
44.9%		24.4%
+174
+133

1.29
1.61		2.90
o3½-105
u3½-115

FC Koln
Union Berlin 		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%
+197
+147

1.21
1.79		3.00
o2½-112
u2½-108

RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		38.2%
35.7%		26.1%
+210
+115

1.35
1.29		2.64
o3½-105
u3½-112

Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RB Leipzig
Mainz 05		74.6%
10.2%		15.2%
+190
+136
+175
+145
1
0		-1.09661-1.05999-0.29362
Hoffenheim
Union Berlin		39.6%
34.6%		25.8%
+155
+186
+155
+170
4
2		-0.97056-0.98011-0.92584
Eint Frankfurt
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		20.4%
59.1%		20.6%
+238
+114
+215
+115
1
3		-0.79019-0.81353-0.52631
Freiburg
FC Koln		47.5%
28.5%		24.0%
+177
+164
+176
+155
1
4		-1.00581-0.98355-1.25664
Union Berlin
Dortmund		14.2%
67.8%		18.0%
+630
-227
+600
-233
0
3		-0.39966-0.40072-0.38904
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg		14.5%
66.7%		18.8%
+242
+118
+234
+115
1
1		-1.30944-1.31215-1.67376
Bayern Munich
Augsburg		86.0%
4.7%		9.3%
-330
+855
-330
+860
3
2		-0.29885-0.29962-0.15085
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart		51.8%
25.3%		22.9%
+390
-165
+405
-180
0
1		-0.50534-0.49195-1.37599
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Werder Bremen		67.3%
14.4%		18.3%
-105
+280
-109
+275
3
3		-1.38258-1.39489-1.70007
Eint Frankfurt
Hoffenheim		37.7%
37.4%		25.0%
+146
+176
+148
+170
3
1		-0.92834-0.94104-0.97670
FC Koln
Mainz 05		34.8%
40.2%		25.0%
+280
+100
+300
-110
1
0		-1.36787-1.43658-1.05604
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		17.3%
63.1%		19.6%
+345
-134
+400
-142
2
1		-1.52777-1.62338-1.75360
Augsburg
Freiburg		21.8%
55.7%		22.5%
+307
-102
+320
-109
3
1		-1.43548-1.46811-1.52340
Werder Bremen
Eint Frankfurt		18.7%
61.5%		19.8%
+478
-174
+450
-155
1
4		-0.47379-0.50868-0.48592
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin		36.5%
37.1%		26.3%
-116
+319
+105
+310
1
2		-1.46690-1.40584-0.99026
RB Leipzig
Bayern Munich		15.9%
65.0%		19.1%
+915
-395
+945
-435
0
6		-0.26083-0.25441-0.43149
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.