German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 3, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach 		36.4%
38.2%		25.4%
-107
+265

1.38
1.41		2.79
o3-105
u3-115

Wolfsburg
Freiburg 		41.4%
32.1%		26.5%
+185
+140

1.37
1.18		2.55
o2¾-118
u2¾-102

Games for May 2, 2026
Games for May 4, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Freiburg
Dortmund		17.7%
62.2%		20.1%
+615
-225
+600
-235
0
4		-0.40214-0.39794-0.47482
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart		24.2%
53.0%		22.9%
+498
-180
+480
-188
1
1		-1.55315-1.56777-1.47561
Eint Frankfurt
Augsburg		53.6%
24.2%		22.1%
+186
+140
+168
+160
1
1		-1.34827-1.34588-1.50842
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
FC Koln		69.5%
13.5%		17.1%
-107
+279
-115
+280
2
1		-0.69325-0.67264-0.36417
Borussia Monchengladbach
Wolfsburg		39.3%
34.6%		26.0%
+235
+115
+220
+130
0
0		-1.34167-1.31778-1.34557
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05		86.8%
4.4%		8.8%
-123
+292
-128
+330
4
3		-0.62937-0.57536-0.14123
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		10.8%
73.4%		15.9%
+515
-190
+525
-208
1
3		-0.45741-0.43529-0.30967
Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach		11.0%
73.5%		15.4%
+215
+130
+215
+129
1
1		-1.30030-1.30008-1.86814
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern Munich		5.2%
84.9%		9.9%
+445
-200
+445
-202
2
4		-0.44020-0.44412-0.16397
RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+123
+200
+120
+199
3
1		-0.83757-0.83285-0.58358
Wolfsburg
Union Berlin		47.6%
27.3%		25.1%
+230
+120
+225
+120
2
1		-1.22792-1.21790-0.74324
Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+680
-255
+580
-250
2
1		-2.08868-1.96404-2.32014
Dortmund
Hoffenheim		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
+205
+121
+203
+120
1
2		-0.82784-0.82549-1.38994
Freiburg
Mainz 05		48.7%
27.0%		24.3%
+245
+126
+230
+128
1
0		-1.27311-1.23760-0.71906
Werder Bremen
FC Koln		34.9%
40.0%		25.1%
+220
+136
+210
+130
1
3		-0.88605-0.88312-0.91564
Eint Frankfurt
Wolfsburg		30.0%
45.7%		24.3%
+170
+156
+165
+156
2
1		-1.02761-1.01567-1.20451
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97764 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.98286 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97522
0.00243
0.00764

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.