German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig		56.2%
21.8%		22.0%
-132
+305
-135
+340
3
3		-1.55879-1.55353-1.51286
RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+260
+100
+240
-100
0
4		-0.71460-0.74244-1.48523
Mainz 05
Bayern Munich		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1050
-420
+1000
-460
0
3		-0.24117-0.24309-0.11142
Dortmund
Hoffenheim		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
-114
+295
-120
+300
3
2		-0.65911-0.64764-0.64447
Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+565
-205
+675
-215
0
2		-0.43197-0.40164-0.28276
Freiburg
Wolfsburg		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+195
+137
+190
+135
1
0		-1.11252-1.10452-1.38621
Borussia Monchengladbach
Dortmund		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+650
-270
+660
-290
2
3		-0.34438-0.34135-0.78719
Eint Frankfurt
Augsburg		53.6%
24.2%		22.1%
+182
+157
+185
+155
0
0		-1.28179-1.27072-1.50842
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin		36.5%
37.1%		26.3%
+135
+211
+130
+210
4
4		-1.28500-1.29496-1.33382
Hoffenheim
Freiburg		34.0%
40.1%		25.8%
+297
-109
+280
-110
2
3		-0.68361-0.68720-0.91349
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05		58.4%
19.9%		21.8%
+275
+101
+255
+100
2
2		-1.35212-1.35899-1.52459
Werder Bremen
VfB Stuttgart		24.2%
53.0%		22.9%
+343
-137
+340
-140
2
1		-1.52308-1.52129-1.41960
Dortmund
Bayern Munich		11.9%
72.1%		16.0%
+525
-220
+555
-230
2
2		-1.71858-1.70534-1.83302
Mainz 05
Hoffenheim		19.5%
59.9%		20.6%
+197
+145
+185
+155
0
2		-0.92859-0.96443-0.51269
Freiburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.0%
58.6%		21.3%
+212
+125
+205
+125
2
1		-1.17244-1.15683-1.60879
Union Berlin
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		13.4%
68.9%		17.8%
+810
-280
+850
-283
0
0		-1.70249-1.73036-1.72783
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.