German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig		24.0%
53.2%		22.8%
+575
-208
+525
-220
0
1		-0.41975-0.42111-0.63092
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dortmund		34.7%
39.8%		25.5%
+233
+114
+230
+113
1
0		-1.23326-1.23100-1.05840
Hoffenheim
Augsburg		48.2%
27.9%		23.9%
-102
+266
+100
+262
2
2		-1.39111-1.38537-1.43175
FC Koln
Eint Frankfurt		17.5%
64.0%		18.5%
+290
-109
+290
-110
2
2		-1.37330-1.37350-1.68562
Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart		55.6%
22.5%		21.8%
+183
+140
+175
+139
2
0		-1.06383-1.04313-0.58686
Bayern Munich
Freiburg		79.0%
7.9%		13.1%
-190
+490
-210
+480
3
2		-0.45744-0.43809-0.23615
Mainz 05
Hoffenheim		19.5%
59.9%		20.6%
+390
-135
+345
-135
2
1		-1.61737-1.54094-1.63476
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen		72.0%
11.6%		16.3%
-115
+295
-120
+290
2
1		-0.66006-0.65670-0.32818
Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		23.0%
53.7%		23.3%
+595
-224
+575
-240
3
6		-0.40372-0.39720-0.62174
VfB Stuttgart
Augsburg		44.9%
30.4%		24.7%
+102
+265
+110
+230
5
2		-0.73748-0.78017-0.80089
Eint Frankfurt
Mainz 05		56.0%
22.6%		21.4%
+240
+118
+220
+120
1
2		-0.81326-0.83229-1.48695
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich		4.6%
86.1%		9.3%
+1500
-640
+1475
-715
0
4		-0.17892-0.18092-0.15023
Borussia Monchengladbach
FC Koln		65.2%
16.4%		18.5%
+210
+137
+213
+130
3
3		-1.27218-1.27100-1.68929
Werder Bremen
Wolfsburg		16.4%
63.7%		19.9%
+190
+140
+180
+143
1
0		-1.09883-1.07137-1.80905
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig		14.0%
68.3%		17.7%
+270
-107
+260
-110
0
5		-0.69459-0.68886-0.38126
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart		62.8%
17.4%		19.8%
+165
+145
+160
+150
0
1		-0.93100-0.95776-1.75123
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97764 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.98286 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97522
0.00243
0.00764

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.