German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig 		14.0%
68.3%		17.7%
+480
-185
+450
-185
0.99
2.39		3.38
o3-120
u3+104
o3-120
u3+100
Dortmund
Freiburg 		53.2%
23.9%		22.9%
+138
+198
+125
+205
1.83
1.15		2.98
o2¾-102
u2¾-115
o2½-130
u2½+110
Eint Frankfurt
Werder Bremen 		52.2%
25.2%		22.5%
+150
+174
+150
+165
1.88
1.24		3.12
o3-125
u3¼-120
o3-115
u3+100
Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach		11.0%
73.5%		15.4%
+164
+172
+160
+175
3
1		-1.00479-0.99701-2.20464
Freiburg
Augsburg		46.4%
28.7%		24.9%
+210
+157
+200
+165
0
0		-1.17613-1.16414-1.38934
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eint Frankfurt		49.6%
27.3%		23.1%
-116
+317
-120
+335
4
1		-0.65126-0.63741-0.70061
Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen		54.9%
22.2%		22.8%
+135
+210
+145
+205
2
1		-0.88768-0.92166-0.59918
Mainz 05
RB Leipzig		7.3%
80.2%		12.5%
+292
-104
+285
-110
2
1		-1.39719-1.39372-2.61784
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		80.6%
7.3%		12.1%
-140
+370
-145
+365
3
1		-0.56725-0.56321-0.21589
VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim		30.6%
44.9%		24.4%
+100
+253
+100
+250
1
1		-1.40956-1.40222-1.40891
Eint Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		6.8%
82.0%		11.2%
+975
-385
+1025
-400
0
4		-0.26529-0.25538-0.19877
Union Berlin
Dortmund		14.2%
67.8%		18.0%
+525
-193
+550
-210
0
6		-0.44848-0.43257-0.38904
Augsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		12.0%
71.9%		16.1%
+310
-106
+320
-108
3
0		-1.43582-1.46959-2.12419
Werder Bremen
Freiburg		22.7%
54.5%		22.8%
+308
-102
+270
+105
0
5		-0.71453-0.76070-0.60699
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen		46.8%
28.9%		24.2%
+313
-114
+310
-120
3
1		-1.44587-1.45573-0.75854
Bayern Munich
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		62.1%
17.8%		20.1%
+133
+208
+135
+205
0
0		-1.30390-1.28067-1.60589
Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart		43.8%
30.8%		25.4%
+470
-177
+430
-175
2
1		-1.77178-1.71297-0.82556
Borussia Monchengladbach
Union Berlin		55.7%
22.1%		22.2%
+240
+118
+240
+110
2
1		-1.25773-1.27075-0.58512
RB Leipzig
Augsburg		73.1%
11.1%		15.9%
+140
+213
+140
+203
0
0		-1.24303-1.24247-1.84124
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.35552 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.38072 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15085
0.20467
0.22987

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.