German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 2 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
12/01/2024 02:30 PM	Hoffenheim Mainz 05	50.6% 26.2%	23.2%	+268 +106 +269 +100	0 2	-0.75336-0.73714	-1.34082
11/30/2024 05:30 PM	Bayern Munich Dortmund	64.3% 16.7%	19.0%	-135 +365 -135 +360	1 1	-1.46231-1.45543	-1.65858
11/30/2024 02:30 PM	Wolfsburg RB Leipzig	19.0% 59.5%	21.5%	+380 -133 +365 -135	5 1	-1.59140-1.57867	-1.66084
11/30/2024 02:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Union Berlin	60.7% 18.4%	20.8%	-112 +360 -120 +420	2 1	-0.66510-0.61780	-0.49883
11/30/2024 02:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Freiburg	49.4% 26.7%	23.9%	+260 +105 +260 +105	1 3	-0.74619-0.76179	-1.32137
11/30/2024 02:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen	43.5% 31.5%	25.0%	+174 +160 +180 +170	2 2	-1.30793-1.28620	-1.38565
11/23/2024 05:30 PM	Werder Bremen Eint Frankfurt	18.7% 61.5%	19.8%	+360 -133 +330 -135	0 1	-0.58665-0.60398	-0.48592
11/23/2024 02:30 PM	Union Berlin Wolfsburg	20.7% 56.7%	22.6%	+285 +115 +286 +115	0 1	-0.78856-0.79502	-0.56747
11/23/2024 02:30 PM	RB Leipzig Hoffenheim	59.9% 19.3%	20.7%	+123 +225 +113 +225	3 4	-1.20401-1.22503	-1.64284
11/23/2024 02:30 PM	Freiburg Dortmund	17.7% 62.2%	20.1%	+340 -118 +337 -125	0 4	-0.63847-0.61860	-0.47482
11/22/2024 07:30 PM	Augsburg Bayern Munich	3.5% 88.8%	7.6%	+2000 -800 +1900 -935	0 3	-0.14903-0.14302	-0.11838
11/10/2024 04:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt VfB Stuttgart	40.7% 34.6%	24.7%	+360 -130 +328 -125	3 2	-1.55221-1.49544	-0.89794
11/10/2024 02:30 PM	Hoffenheim Augsburg	48.2% 27.9%	23.9%	+260 +114 +255 +110	0 0	-1.29335-1.32610	-1.43175
11/09/2024 05:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach RB Leipzig	24.0% 53.2%	22.8%	+425 -158 +390 -170	0 0	-1.52892-1.57591	-1.47902
11/09/2024 02:30 PM	Dortmund Mainz 05	69.1% 13.5%	17.3%	-104 +286 -110 +285	1 3	-1.37888-1.39776	-1.99886
11/08/2024 07:30 PM	Freiburg Union Berlin	38.0% 35.2%	26.8%	+220 +145 +210 +145	0 0	-1.19577-1.22714	-1.31837

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.