German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Union Berlin
Freiburg		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+340
-114
+315
-103
1
0		-1.51499-1.45273-1.27740
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen		30.2%
45.0%		24.8%
+222
+127
+235
+122
2
0		-1.20164-1.24303-1.19733
Wolfsburg
Hoffenheim		40.7%
33.4%		25.8%
+580
-220
+625
-230
1
1		-1.64341-1.69097-1.35445
Bayern Munich
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		62.1%
17.8%		20.1%
-178
+440
-183
+410
1
1		-1.60520-1.63496-1.60589
Augsburg
Dortmund		10.4%
74.5%		15.0%
+485
-178
+450
-185
0
2		-0.47638-0.48070-0.29418
Werder Bremen
Union Berlin		27.4%
48.3%		24.3%
+216
+149
+215
+150
4
1		-1.18548-1.18172-1.29591
Dortmund
FC Koln		68.3%
14.3%		17.3%
-130
+345
-125
+325
2
1		-0.60097-0.62781-0.38091
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05		47.2%
28.7%		24.1%
-103
+275
-110
+280
2
2		-1.37741-1.39372-1.42221
Augsburg
RB Leipzig		7.9%
79.1%		13.0%
+685
-255
+560
-245
1
2		-0.35962-0.38485-0.23508
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Freiburg		54.6%
22.6%		22.8%
+140
+210
+135
+200
3
3		-1.26705-1.29638-1.47968
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich		10.4%
74.7%		14.9%
+900
-400
+1100
-485
1
4		-0.25768-0.21573-0.29170
Freiburg
Eint Frankfurt		28.3%
47.9%		23.8%
+225
+128
+215
+130
0
2		-0.85567-0.87335-0.73578
Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart		43.8%
30.8%		25.4%
+620
-255
+635
-271
0
4		-0.36600-0.35818-1.17743
Bayern Munich
Dortmund		64.3%
16.7%		19.0%
-143
+350
-155
+368
3
2		-0.56024-0.53602-0.44219
Union Berlin
Borussia Monchengladbach		16.2%
64.5%		19.3%
+217
+146
+205
+145
0
1		-0.93405-0.93889-0.43869
Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.0%
76.9%		14.0%
+390
-146
+365
-140
1
1		-1.47011-1.44677-1.96483
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97764 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.98286 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97522
0.00243
0.00764

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.