German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 5, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig 		14.0%
68.3%		17.7%
+465
-181
+450
-185
0.99
2.39		3.38
o3-120
u3+104
o3-120
u3+100
Dortmund
Freiburg 		53.2%
23.9%		22.9%
+138
+198
+125
+205
1.83
1.15		2.98
o2¾+100
u2¾-116
o2½-130
u2½+110
Eint Frankfurt
Werder Bremen 		52.2%
25.2%		22.5%
+148
+171
+150
+165
1.88
1.24		3.12
o3-120
u3¼-116
o3-115
u3+100
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Apr 4, 2025
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Eint Frankfurt
Borussia Monchengladbach		24.3%
53.8%		21.9%
+168
+158
+165
+155
1
1		-1.32886-1.33325-1.51937
Augsburg
Mainz 05		35.0%
39.3%		25.7%
+375
-120
+380
-130
0
0		-1.32426-1.35120-1.35899
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg		44.4%
30.0%		25.5%
+115
+270
+110
+265
0
0		-1.25285-1.25646-1.36500
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund		16.5%
64.5%		19.0%
+265
-101
+275
-105
2
1		-1.32392-1.35642-1.80193
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim		27.1%
49.0%		23.9%
+212
+136
+210
+130
4
0		-1.16344-1.17357-1.30634
Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich		3.7%
88.5%		7.8%
+2000
-1000
+2000
-1100
0
3		-0.13045-0.12797-0.12168
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		17.3%
63.1%		19.6%
+1700
-700
+1815
-780
1
3		-0.16767-0.16094-0.46115
Wolfsburg
Eint Frankfurt		36.4%
37.7%		25.8%
+270
+106
+265
+105
1
1		-1.34385-1.31972-1.35402
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin		66.1%
15.0%		18.9%
+130
+225
+130
+215
0
0		-1.26390-1.27959-1.66553
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart		51.8%
25.3%		22.9%
+397
-152
+400
-155
2
1		-1.63815-1.63907-0.65819
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen		30.2%
45.0%		24.8%
+208
+139
+210
+136
0
1		-0.90617-0.89830-0.79917
Eint Frankfurt
Hoffenheim		37.7%
37.4%		25.0%
+110
+237
+110
+225
2
2		-1.38023-1.40047-1.38750
Werder Bremen
Dortmund		11.0%
73.5%		15.5%
+510
-200
+505
-200
2
2		-1.62333-1.60814-1.86620
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05		47.2%
28.7%		24.1%
+124
+232
+130
+220
0
2		-1.22888-1.20041-1.24995
Bayern Munich
Freiburg		79.0%
7.9%		13.1%
-430
+1150
-420
+1225
2
1		-0.24270-0.23926-0.23615
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig		28.2%
47.4%		24.4%
+110
+255
+105
+260
2
2		-1.31800-1.33351-1.40891
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.35552 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.38072 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.15085
0.20467
0.22987

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.