German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Werder Bremen 		32.0%
42.8%		25.2%


1.27
1.51		2.78


VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim 		30.6%
44.9%		24.4%


1.29
1.61		2.90


FC Koln
Union Berlin 		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%


1.21
1.79		3.00


RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		38.2%
35.7%		26.1%


1.35
1.29		2.64


Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
FC Koln
Augsburg		32.9%
42.3%		24.8%
+232
+123
+225
+125
0
2		-0.83833-0.84730-0.86000
Borussia Monchengladbach
Freiburg		49.4%
26.7%		23.9%
+280
+112
+270
+110
1
2		-0.78596-0.79025-1.32137
Dortmund
RB Leipzig		26.8%
49.5%		23.7%
+262
-105
+227
+105
2
2		-1.44651-1.42899-1.44007
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin		60.7%
18.4%		20.8%
+135
+220
+135
+212
0
1		-1.19647-1.17474-1.69021
Hoffenheim
FC Koln		49.3%
27.6%		23.1%
+105
+258
-105
+280
2
2		-1.35301-1.34289-1.46733
Eint Frankfurt
Bayern Munich		6.8%
82.0%		11.2%
+2350
-1100
+1900
-1000
2
3		-0.11809-0.14217-0.19877
Augsburg
Wolfsburg		15.6%
64.9%		19.5%
+230
+122
+236
+120
3
2		-1.23715-1.25309-1.85527
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig		19.0%
59.5%		21.5%
+487
-194
+460
-190
2
2		-1.61969-1.57591-1.53684
FC Koln
VfB Stuttgart		22.9%
55.4%		21.7%
+500
-198
+500
-202
1
3		-0.44141-0.44721-0.59133
Bayern Munich
Werder Bremen		85.6%
4.9%		9.5%
-325
+790
-326
+810
3
0		-0.30104-0.30718-0.15565
Freiburg
Hoffenheim		32.0%
42.6%		25.3%
+390
-138
+360
-138
0
3		-0.57480-0.59117-0.85282
Borussia Monchengladbach
Eint Frankfurt		44.1%
31.9%		24.0%
+240
+120
+270
+110
0
3		-0.82225-0.76970-1.14360
Mainz 05
Dortmund		9.6%
76.0%		14.4%
+420
-155
+395
-160
0
4		-0.52899-0.52921-0.27463
Hoffenheim
Bayern Munich		5.8%
83.7%		10.5%
+950
-410
+950
-405
1
5		-0.25286-0.25521-0.17831
RB Leipzig
FC Koln		74.0%
10.8%		15.1%
+102
+260
+100
+250
2
1		-0.72751-0.73314-0.30044
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Borussia Monchengladbach		37.9%
36.4%		25.7%
+105
+266
+100
+265
1
1		-1.34908-1.33139-1.35907
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97764 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.98286 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97522
0.00243
0.00764

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.