German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 3 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
10/06/2024 05:30 PM	Hoffenheim VfB Stuttgart	35.9% 38.6%	25.5%	+650 -285 +675 -310	1 1	-1.86562-1.86717	-1.36692
10/06/2024 03:30 PM	Bayern Munich Eint Frankfurt	76.6% 9.6%	13.8%	-180 +465 -190 +480	3 3	-1.62913-1.60390	-1.98094
10/05/2024 01:30 PM	Dortmund Union Berlin	59.4% 19.6%	21.0%	+103 +280 +105 +271	1 2	-1.36070-1.35085	-1.62928
10/05/2024 01:30 PM	Freiburg Werder Bremen	45.2% 29.8%	25.1%	+161 +172 +158 +170	1 0	-0.98752-0.98669	-0.79509
10/04/2024 06:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Augsburg	64.1% 16.7%	19.2%	+184 +145 +185 +138	1 2	-0.92269-0.90412	-1.78958
09/29/2024 03:30 PM	Werder Bremen Hoffenheim	21.9% 56.3%	21.8%	+210 +140 +185 +135	4 3	-1.12704-1.09646	-1.51905
09/28/2024 04:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Bayern Munich	12.8% 70.1%	17.0%	+385 -140 +375 -158	1 1	-1.51923-1.54825	-1.77078
09/28/2024 01:30 PM	Augsburg RB Leipzig	7.9% 79.1%	13.0%	+550 -193 +507 -210	0 4	-0.41523-0.43872	-0.23508
09/28/2024 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Borussia Monchengladbach	16.2% 64.5%	19.3%	+245 +120 +245 +115	0 1	-0.81040-0.80932	-0.43869
09/28/2024 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Wolfsburg	23.7% 53.1%	23.2%	+110 +247 +110 +230	2 2	-1.39115-1.38047	-1.46171
09/22/2024 03:30 PM	Dortmund VfB Stuttgart	55.6% 22.5%	21.8%	+200 +130 +185 +135	1 5	-0.86038-0.89592	-1.48992
09/22/2024 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen	23.0% 53.7%	23.3%	+960 -360 +950 -385	3 4	-0.26991-0.27662	-0.62174
09/21/2024 04:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Eint Frankfurt	44.1% 31.9%	24.0%	+340 -132 +315 -130	0 2	-0.59232-0.61828	-1.14360
09/21/2024 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Union Berlin	39.6% 34.6%	25.8%	+320 -118 +325 -120	1 2	-0.64278-0.65589	-1.06187
09/21/2024 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Werder Bremen	85.6% 4.9%	9.5%	-335 +840 -320 +800	5 0	-0.29584-0.31301	-0.15565
09/20/2024 06:30 PM	Mainz 05 Augsburg	31.3% 43.6%	25.1%	+204 +138 +191 +140	3 2	-1.14219-1.11085	-1.16229

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.