German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 76 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
03/15/2025 02:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Werder Bremen	62.9% 17.5%	19.6%	+207 +126 +210 +125	4 2	-1.15598-1.16803	-0.46426
03/09/2025 02:30 PM	Union Berlin Eint Frankfurt	23.5% 54.4%	22.1%	+290 +100 +298 -105	2 1	-1.39090-1.41803	-1.44757
03/08/2025 05:30 PM	RB Leipzig Freiburg	60.4% 18.6%	21.0%	+190 +155 +185 +155	0 0	-1.24594-1.24967	-1.56050
03/08/2025 02:30 PM	Augsburg Dortmund	10.4% 74.5%	15.0%	+750 -250 +775 -230	1 0	-2.17147-2.18223	-2.25866
03/08/2025 02:30 PM	Werder Bremen Bayer 04 Leverkusen	10.3% 74.4%	15.2%	+810 -300 +850 -320	2 0	-2.24300-2.28455	-2.27070
03/07/2025 07:30 PM	Mainz 05 Borussia Monchengladbach	11.0% 73.5%	15.4%	+164 +172 +160 +175	3 1	-1.00479-0.99701	-2.20464
03/02/2025 04:30 PM	Freiburg Augsburg	46.4% 28.7%	24.9%	+210 +157 +200 +165	0 0	-1.17613-1.16414	-1.38934
03/01/2025 05:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Eint Frankfurt	49.6% 27.3%	23.1%	-116 +317 -120 +335	4 1	-0.65126-0.63741	-0.70061
03/01/2025 02:30 PM	Wolfsburg Werder Bremen	54.9% 22.2%	22.8%	+135 +210 +145 +205	2 1	-0.88768-0.92166	-0.59918
03/01/2025 02:30 PM	Mainz 05 RB Leipzig	7.3% 80.2%	12.5%	+292 -104 +285 -110	2 1	-1.39719-1.39372	-2.61784
02/28/2025 07:30 PM	Bayern Munich VfB Stuttgart	80.6% 7.3%	12.1%	-140 +370 -145 +365	3 1	-0.56725-0.56321	-0.21589
02/23/2025 06:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Hoffenheim	30.6% 44.9%	24.4%	+100 +253 +100 +250	1 1	-1.40956-1.40222	-1.40891
02/23/2025 04:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt Bayern Munich	6.8% 82.0%	11.2%	+975 -385 +1025 -400	0 4	-0.26529-0.25538	-0.19877
02/22/2025 05:30 PM	Union Berlin Dortmund	14.2% 67.8%	18.0%	+525 -193 +550 -210	0 6	-0.44848-0.43257	-0.38904
02/22/2025 02:30 PM	Augsburg Borussia Monchengladbach	12.0% 71.9%	16.1%	+310 -106 +320 -108	3 0	-1.43582-1.46959	-2.12419
02/21/2025 07:30 PM	Werder Bremen Freiburg	22.7% 54.5%	22.8%	+308 -102 +270 +105	0 5	-0.71453-0.76070	-0.60699

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.