German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for September 20, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Augsburg 		31.3%
43.6%		25.1%
+190
+147
+180
+145
1.26
1.53		2.79
o2¾-111
u2¾-108
o2½-140
u3-130
Volatility Bet Value Active
Games for Sep 19, 2024
Games for Sep 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Eint Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart		40.7%
34.6%		24.7%
+525
-205
+515
-210
0
3		-0.42892-0.43878-1.06250
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		50.6%
26.2%		23.2%
+290
-112
+285
-115
1
4		-0.66629-0.66937-1.34082
Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach		36.4%
38.2%		25.4%
+100
+251
+110
+255
2
1		-0.72745-0.75942-1.00939
FC Koln
Bayern Munich		3.4%
89.5%		7.1%
+1100
-435
+1050
-470
0
2		-0.23623-0.24044-0.11111
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig		19.0%
59.5%		21.5%
+770
-290
+760
-305
0
3		-0.32762-0.32889-0.51948
Union Berlin
Augsburg		40.3%
33.7%		26.0%
+270
+110
+255
+110
0
2		-0.77204-0.78858-1.08833
Borussia Monchengladbach
Wolfsburg		39.3%
34.6%		26.0%
+279
-103
+265
-105
3
1		-1.35965-1.33964-0.93369
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		21.0%
57.6%		21.4%
+187
+132
+195
+120
1
3		-0.86467-0.83409-0.55121
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund		16.5%
64.5%		19.0%
+250
+100
+245
+100
1
0		-1.27193-1.27447-1.80193
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin		60.7%
18.4%		20.8%
-150
+460
-155
+460
1
0		-0.54206-0.52770-0.49883
RB Leipzig
Freiburg		60.4%
18.6%		21.0%
-175
+475
-180
+445
4
1		-0.47928-0.48464-0.50395
Werder Bremen
Eint Frankfurt		18.7%
61.5%		19.8%
+375
-130
+330
-125
1
1		-1.40222-1.38502-1.61903
FC Koln
Augsburg		32.9%
42.3%		24.8%
+427
-147
+422
-145
1
1		-1.47591-1.40964-1.39517
Dortmund
Bayern Munich		11.9%
72.1%		16.0%
+645
-280
+580
-280
2
0		-2.03876-1.96233-2.12586
Mainz 05
RB Leipzig		7.3%
80.2%		12.5%
+750
-275
+725
-299
0
0		-1.77378-1.77815-2.08249
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		17.3%
63.1%		19.6%
+1200
-480
+1200
-545
1
2		-0.21088-0.21812-0.46115
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.