German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for May 2, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Werder Bremen 		32.0%
42.8%		25.2%


1.27
1.51		2.78


VfB Stuttgart
Hoffenheim 		30.6%
44.9%		24.4%


1.29
1.61		2.90


FC Koln
Union Berlin 		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%


1.21
1.79		3.00


RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		38.2%
35.7%		26.1%


1.35
1.29		2.64


Games for May 1, 2026
Games for May 3, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Dortmund
Wolfsburg		42.9%
31.6%		25.5%
-145
+388
-145
+360
2
1		-0.55769-0.56808-0.84653
Augsburg
Mainz 05		35.0%
39.3%		25.7%
+302
-105
+285
+100
0
2		-0.70338-0.72998-0.93295
Werder Bremen
Freiburg		22.7%
54.5%		22.8%
+265
+118
+250
+116
0
1		-0.81004-0.81202-0.60699
Eint Frankfurt
Union Berlin		44.8%
30.8%		24.3%
+250
+116
+248
+112
1
1		-1.28656-1.30689-1.41288
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart		34.6%
39.4%		26.0%
+425
-155
+390
-155
0
1		-0.53091-0.54666-0.93189
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim		27.1%
49.0%		23.9%
+355
-121
+350
-119
1
3		-0.63577-0.64875-0.71415
Mainz 05
RB Leipzig		7.3%
80.2%		12.5%
+475
-182
+450
-175
2
1		-1.78391-1.74968-2.61784
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eint Frankfurt		49.6%
27.3%		23.1%
+107
+255
+115
+220
3
1		-0.76059-0.80880-0.70061
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		62.9%
17.5%		19.6%
+242
+117
+225
+120
1
1		-1.30125-1.30582-1.62801
Wolfsburg
FC Koln		57.3%
21.0%		21.6%
+251
+108
+240
+110
0
1		-0.76282-0.78172-1.56022
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen		46.8%
28.9%		24.2%
-108
+299
-110
+283
2
0		-0.68722-0.68399-0.75854
FC Koln
Freiburg		21.5%
56.9%		21.6%
+287
-101
+273
+100
1
2		-0.72029-0.73081-0.56366
VfB Stuttgart
Borussia Monchengladbach		18.7%
61.0%		20.2%
+131
+200
+126
+200
3
0		-0.86962-0.86394-1.67446
Dortmund
Union Berlin		59.4%
19.6%		21.0%
+127
+255
+130
+240
3
0		-0.84292-0.86977-0.52133
Augsburg
Bayern Munich		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+2000
-825
+2150
-925
2
1		-3.07868-3.14330-3.34387
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05		58.4%
19.9%		21.8%
+218
+134
+208
+135
1
3		-0.88547-0.89779-1.61636
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97764 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.98286 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97522
0.00243
0.00764

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.