German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
46.8%
28.9%
24.2%
+313
-114
+310
-120
3
1
-1.44587-1.45573-0.75854
Bayern Munich
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
62.1%
17.8%
20.1%
+133
+208
+135
+205
0
0
-1.30390-1.28067-1.60589
Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart
43.8%
30.8%
25.4%
+470
-177
+430
-175
2
1
-1.77178-1.71297-0.82556
Borussia Monchengladbach
Union Berlin
55.7%
22.1%
22.2%
+240
+118
+240
+110
2
1
-1.25773-1.27075-0.58512
RB Leipzig
Augsburg
73.1%
11.1%
15.9%
+140
+213
+140
+203
0
0
-1.24303-1.24247-1.84124
Eint Frankfurt
Borussia Monchengladbach
24.3%
53.8%
21.9%
+168
+158
+165
+155
1
1
-1.32886-1.33325-1.51937
Augsburg
Mainz 05
35.0%
39.3%
25.7%
+375
-120
+380
-130
0
0
-1.32426-1.35120-1.35899
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg
44.4%
30.0%
25.5%
+115
+270
+110
+265
0
0
-1.25285-1.25646-1.36500
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund
16.5%
64.5%
19.0%
+265
-101
+275
-105
2
1
-1.32392-1.35642-1.80193
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim
27.1%
49.0%
23.9%
+212
+136
+210
+130
4
0
-1.16344-1.17357-1.30634
Werder Bremen
Bayern Munich
3.7%
88.5%
7.8%
+2000
-1000
+2000
-1100
0
3
-0.13045-0.12797-0.12168
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
17.3%
63.1%
19.6%
+1700
-700
+1815
-780
1
3
-0.16767-0.16094-0.46115
Wolfsburg
Eint Frankfurt
36.4%
37.7%
25.8%
+270
+106
+265
+105
1
1
-1.34385-1.31972-1.35402
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin
66.1%
15.0%
18.9%
+130
+225
+130
+215
0
0
-1.26390-1.27959-1.66553
Borussia Monchengladbach
VfB Stuttgart
51.8%
25.3%
22.9%
+397
-152
+400
-155
2
1
-1.63815-1.63907-0.65819
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen
30.2%
45.0%
24.8%
+208
+139
+210
+136
0
1
-0.90617-0.89830-0.79917
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.