German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Eint Frankfurt
Hoffenheim		37.7%
37.4%		25.0%
+110
+237
+110
+225
2
2		-1.38023-1.40047-1.38750
Werder Bremen
Dortmund		11.0%
73.5%		15.5%
+510
-200
+505
-200
2
2		-1.62333-1.60814-1.86620
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05		47.2%
28.7%		24.1%
+124
+232
+130
+220
0
2		-1.22888-1.20041-1.24995
Bayern Munich
Freiburg		79.0%
7.9%		13.1%
-430
+1150
-420
+1225
2
1		-0.24270-0.23926-0.23615
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig		28.2%
47.4%		24.4%
+110
+255
+105
+260
2
2		-1.31800-1.33351-1.40891
Augsburg
Werder Bremen		32.0%
42.8%		25.2%
+298
-107
+305
-115
2
0		-1.41210-1.44604-1.13943
Mainz 05
Union Berlin		24.7%
51.9%		23.4%
+168
+188
+175
+180
1
2		-1.08090-1.06714-0.65647
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		28.7%
47.2%		24.1%
+1025
-375
+1050
-415
1
3		-0.27161-0.26147-0.75004
Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich		8.1%
78.4%		13.5%
+1500
-630
+1600
-665
2
3		-0.18153-0.18161-0.24285
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart		34.6%
39.4%		26.0%
+445
-168
+460
-185
0
4		-0.49908-0.48085-0.93189
Dortmund
Eint Frankfurt		48.0%
28.8%		23.2%
+155
+175
+150
+165
0
2		-1.04461-1.02460-1.24452
Hoffenheim
Bayern Munich		5.8%
83.7%		10.5%
+2200
-900
+2300
-1050
0
5		-0.14121-0.13180-0.17831
Augsburg
Union Berlin		26.3%
49.6%		24.1%
+265
+120
+280
+115
2
0		-1.31714-1.36583-1.33480
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart		62.8%
17.4%		19.8%
+267
+100
+260
+100
1
2		-0.72163-0.73326-1.75123
Freiburg
Eint Frankfurt		28.3%
47.9%		23.8%
+378
-138
+380
-140
1
4		-0.56639-0.57684-0.73578
Mainz 05
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.0%
76.9%		14.0%
+840
-265
+800
-300
0
1		-0.34458-0.33294-0.26233
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.