German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 2 days ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
04/21/2024 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen	43.5% 31.5%	25.0%	-135 +348 -155 +383	1 2	-1.52943-1.61863	-1.15633
04/20/2024 04:30 PM	Bayern Munich Union Berlin	82.3% 6.3%	11.4%	-144 +400 -150 +400	5 1	-0.55523-0.54550	-0.19532
04/20/2024 01:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Hoffenheim	48.6% 27.8%	23.6%	+195 +131 +205 +128	3 4	-0.86199-0.85003	-1.28121
04/19/2024 06:30 PM	Augsburg Eint Frankfurt	17.8% 62.8%	19.3%	+295 -105 +270 -105	1 3	-0.68866-0.70719	-0.46491
04/14/2024 03:30 PM	Werder Bremen Bayer 04 Leverkusen	10.3% 74.4%	15.2%	+1400 -550 +1400 -550	0 5	-0.20124-0.20727	-0.29549
04/13/2024 04:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt VfB Stuttgart	40.7% 34.6%	24.7%	+525 -205 +515 -210	0 3	-0.42892-0.43878	-1.06250
04/13/2024 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Mainz 05	50.6% 26.2%	23.2%	+290 -112 +285 -115	1 4	-0.66629-0.66937	-1.34082
04/13/2024 01:30 PM	Dortmund Borussia Monchengladbach	36.4% 38.2%	25.4%	+100 +251 +110 +255	2 1	-0.72745-0.75942	-1.00939
04/13/2024 01:30 PM	FC Koln Bayern Munich	3.4% 89.5%	7.1%	+1100 -435 +1050 -470	0 2	-0.23623-0.24044	-0.11111
04/13/2024 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg RB Leipzig	19.0% 59.5%	21.5%	+770 -290 +760 -305	0 3	-0.32762-0.32889	-0.51948
04/12/2024 06:30 PM	Union Berlin Augsburg	40.3% 33.7%	26.0%	+270 +110 +255 +110	0 2	-0.77204-0.78858	-1.08833
04/07/2024 03:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Wolfsburg	39.3% 34.6%	26.0%	+279 -103 +265 -105	3 1	-1.35965-1.33964	-0.93369
04/07/2024 01:30 PM	Augsburg Hoffenheim	21.0% 57.6%	21.4%	+187 +132 +195 +120	1 3	-0.86467-0.83409	-0.55121
04/06/2024 04:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Dortmund	16.5% 64.5%	19.0%	+250 +100 +245 +100	1 0	-1.27193-1.27447	-1.80193
04/06/2024 01:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Union Berlin	60.7% 18.4%	20.8%	-150 +460 -155 +460	1 0	-0.54206-0.52770	-0.49883
04/06/2024 01:30 PM	RB Leipzig Freiburg	60.4% 18.6%	21.0%	-175 +475 -180 +445	4 1	-0.47928-0.48464	-0.50395

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
Sportsbooks	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0
DRatings	0	0-0-0 (0.000)	0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.