German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Augsburg
Bayern Munich		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+2000
-825
+2150
-925
2
1		-3.07868-3.14330-3.34387
Wolfsburg
Mainz 05		58.4%
19.9%		21.8%
+218
+134
+208
+135
1
3		-0.88547-0.89779-1.61636
Werder Bremen
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		10.3%
74.4%		15.2%
+444
-170
+459
-180
0
1		-0.49768-0.48726-0.29549
Hoffenheim
Eint Frankfurt		29.5%
47.1%		23.4%
+123
+220
+130
+220
3
1		-0.83273-0.85247-1.22227
Freiburg
Augsburg		46.4%
28.7%		24.9%
+185
+165
+170
+172
2
2		-1.21611-1.22336-1.38934
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart		29.6%
45.6%		24.8%
+465
-159
+455
-165
1
1		-1.44520-1.46594-1.39388
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig		56.2%
21.8%		22.0%
-140
+360
-145
+350
5
1		-0.56265-0.55549-0.57599
Mainz 05
FC Koln		31.9%
43.6%		24.5%
+260
+111
+255
+110
1
2		-0.77879-0.78076-0.83043
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hoffenheim		54.0%
23.5%		22.4%
+187
+140
+188
+130
0
1		-0.91021-0.87577-1.44762
Eint Frankfurt
Werder Bremen		52.2%
25.2%		22.5%
+172
+162
+165
+156
3
3		-1.28928-1.32565-1.49046
Union Berlin
Augsburg		40.3%
33.7%		26.0%
+186
+168
+185
+168
1
1		-1.19779-1.19902-1.34523
Freiburg
RB Leipzig		13.5%
68.6%		18.0%
+405
-142
+400
-130
0
2		-0.56731-0.59195-0.37736
Borussia Monchengladbach
Hoffenheim		48.6%
27.8%		23.6%
+290
-106
+280
-110
1
5		-0.69017-0.69423-1.28121
Bayern Munich
FC Koln		86.8%
4.6%		8.7%
-400
+1050
-425
+1100
3
1		-0.24773-0.24256-0.14202
Werder Bremen
Dortmund		11.0%
73.5%		15.5%
+705
-250
+635
-250
0
3		-0.36862-0.37647-0.30741
Eint Frankfurt
VfB Stuttgart		40.7%
34.6%		24.7%
+378
-146
+395
-155
2
3		-0.55638-0.53940-1.06250
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.