German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

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Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich		8.1%
78.4%		13.5%
+1800
-825
+1725
-900
1
8		-0.14727-0.15333-0.24285
Augsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		12.0%
71.9%		16.1%
+310
-109
+310
-115
0
4		-0.68607-0.67360-0.32969
VfB Stuttgart
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.5%
65.8%		18.7%
+212
+122
+210
+120
4
1		-1.17005-1.16825-1.86472
Mainz 05
Union Berlin		24.7%
51.9%		23.4%
+302
+110
+275
+115
2
2		-1.20644-1.20431-1.45115
Dortmund
Eint Frankfurt		48.0%
28.8%		23.2%
+106
+255
+100
+260
3
3		-1.37460-1.36920-1.46179
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
RB Leipzig		28.2%
47.4%		24.4%
+233
+112
+225
+120
3
1		-1.23753-1.20648-1.26723
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		34.2%
40.1%		25.7%
+229
+128
+200
+130
0
0		-1.26610-1.31557-1.35802
Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart		35.9%
38.6%		25.5%
+265
+100
+230
+107
0
0		-1.38123-1.40263-1.36692
Union Berlin
FC Koln		41.2%
33.6%		25.2%
+193
+161
+192
+150
1
0		-1.10939-1.12052-0.88583
Freiburg
Wolfsburg		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+190
+149
+175
+155
4
3		-1.09874-1.05463-1.38621
Borussia Monchengladbach
Dortmund		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+535
-205
+510
-205
0
2		-0.43206-0.44498-0.78719
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen		43.5%
31.5%		25.0%
+140
+184
+135
+187
4
0		-0.90961-0.89769-0.83213
Mainz 05
Bayern Munich		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1800
-950
+2000
-950
2
2		-2.63359-2.55761-2.62832
Dortmund
Freiburg		53.2%
23.9%		22.9%
+101
+292
+105
+267
1
1		-1.30067-1.29773-1.47386
FC Koln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.6%
76.3%		14.1%
+320
-125
+340
-130
0
2		-0.62181-0.59528-0.26999
Wolfsburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		27.2%
48.6%		24.2%
+280
+101
+263
+100
3
1		-1.35720-1.32916-1.30262
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.