German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Wolfsburg 		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+200
+136

1.09
1.65		2.74
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+800
-275

0.88
2.66		3.54
o2¾+102
u2¾-120

Dortmund
Hoffenheim 		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
-125
+310

1.87
1.22		3.09
o3¼-102
u3¼-116

Mainz 05
Bayern Munich 		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1210
-435

0.67
3.65		4.32
o3½-101
u3½-110

RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt 		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+194
+130

2.00
1.21		3.21
o3-120
u3+104

Games for Apr 25, 2025
Games for Apr 27, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart		23.2%
54.3%		22.4%
+725
-262
+675
-275
0
3		-0.34657-0.35826-0.60996
Bayern Munich
Wolfsburg		72.3%
11.4%		16.3%
-210
+544
-230
+550
2
1		-0.41599-0.40148-0.32379
FC Koln
Union Berlin		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%
+365
-123
+360
-125
0
2		-0.62233-0.62663-0.67958
Mainz 05
Dortmund		9.6%
76.0%		14.4%
+482
-175
+460
-188
1
1		-1.56825-1.59914-1.94024
RB Leipzig
Werder Bremen		72.0%
11.6%		16.3%
-185
+475
-188
+500
1
1		-1.61601-1.66807-1.81192
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern Munich		5.2%
84.9%		9.9%
+443
-185
+450
-190
0
3		-0.45563-0.45355-0.16397
Eint Frankfurt
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		20.4%
59.1%		20.6%
+1030
-363
+1000
-365
0
3		-0.27051-0.27736-0.52631
FC Koln
Freiburg		21.5%
56.9%		21.6%
+324
-107
+335
-115
0
2		-0.68266-0.65666-0.56366
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig		14.0%
68.3%		17.7%
+765
-289
+725
-285
1
3		-0.31886-0.33553-0.38126
Dortmund
Augsburg		67.3%
14.7%		18.0%
+116
+222
+112
+205
1
1		-1.40952-1.44418-1.71302
Werder Bremen
Borussia Monchengladbach		12.6%
70.8%		16.6%
+227
+117
+235
+110
2
2		-1.38378-1.39159-1.79625
Mainz 05
FC Koln		31.9%
43.6%		24.5%
+200
+172
+165
+170
0
0		-1.23326-1.26475-1.40670
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
VfB Stuttgart		57.1%
21.2%		21.7%
+140
+200
+135
+190
1
1		-1.36739-1.36798-1.52873
RB Leipzig
Dortmund		40.1%
34.3%		25.6%
+160
+167
+146
+165
3
2		-0.96774-0.94284-0.91339
Augsburg
Werder Bremen		32.0%
42.8%		25.2%
+213
+145
+215
+120
0
2		-0.88685-0.82986-0.84898
Freiburg
Wolfsburg		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+240
+130
+216
+125
1
0		-1.22295-1.19227-1.38621
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.81308 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.80604 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.14780
-0.33472
-0.34177

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.