German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for April 26, 2025

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Freiburg
Wolfsburg 		25.0%
50.5%		24.5%
+195
+136

1.09
1.65		2.74
o2¾-105
u2¾-114

Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen 		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+800
-275

0.88
2.66		3.54
o2¾+102
u2¾-118

Dortmund
Hoffenheim 		52.5%
24.9%		22.6%
-125
+310

1.87
1.22		3.09
o3¼-102
u3¼-116

Mainz 05
Bayern Munich 		3.3%
89.5%		7.2%
+1210
-435

0.67
3.65		4.32
o3½-101
u3½-110

RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt 		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+194
+130

2.00
1.21		3.21
o3-120
u3+104

Games for Apr 25, 2025
Games for Apr 27, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayern Munich
Dortmund		64.3%
16.7%		19.0%
-120
+293
-130
+295
4
0		-0.62564-0.61033-0.44219
Eint Frankfurt
Union Berlin		44.8%
30.8%		24.3%
+205
+156
+200
+155
3
0		-1.14100-1.14069-0.80252
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hoffenheim		54.0%
23.5%		22.4%
-170
+450
-185
+430
3
2		-0.47205-0.47119-0.61552
Augsburg
FC Koln		33.8%
41.4%		24.8%
+260
+130
+245
+110
1
1		-1.30464-1.36379-1.39304
Borussia Monchengladbach
Freiburg		49.4%
26.7%		23.9%
+270
+108
+260
+105
3
3		-1.38733-1.36332-1.42970
RB Leipzig
Mainz 05		74.6%
10.2%		15.2%
-132
+442
-135
+385
0
2		-1.66252-1.60321-2.28024
Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		16.6%
63.5%		19.9%
+1200
-306
+1050
-420
1
2		-0.26130-0.26094-0.45487
Dortmund
Eint Frankfurt		48.0%
28.8%		23.2%
+125
+230
+125
+220
3
3		-1.33575-1.32516-1.46179
FC Koln
RB Leipzig		7.7%
79.9%		12.4%
+610
-205
+585
-230
0
6		-0.41545-0.40618-0.22387
Union Berlin
Werder Bremen		39.0%
34.8%		26.1%
+165
+185
+150
+180
0
2		-1.05719-1.07157-1.05495
Wolfsburg
Augsburg		56.3%
21.3%		22.4%
+180
+200
+175
+155
2
3		-1.06242-0.97289-1.54520
Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart		35.9%
38.6%		25.5%
+385
-114
+318
-130
3
2		-1.54192-1.47307-1.02357
Borussia Monchengladbach
FC Koln		65.2%
16.4%		18.5%
+181
+151
+185
+141
1
3		-0.94102-0.91160-1.80996
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05		86.8%
4.4%		8.8%
-310
+800
-355
+825
3
1		-0.30643-0.29538-0.14123
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin		36.5%
37.1%		26.3%
+190
+159
+171
+164
3
0		-1.09115-1.04222-1.00808
Eint Frankfurt
Hoffenheim		37.7%
37.4%		25.0%
+275
+107
+281
+105
3
1		-1.34159-1.35441-0.97670
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.81308 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.80604 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-1.14780
-0.33472
-0.34177

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.