German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u4-122

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Union Berlin
Wolfsburg		20.7%
56.7%		22.6%
+200
+170
+205
+160
1
1		-1.16835-1.15471-1.48682
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Werder Bremen		67.3%
14.4%		18.3%
+111
+261
+105
+250
3
2		-0.76768-0.76424-0.39641
Hoffenheim
Freiburg		34.0%
40.1%		25.8%
+335
-115
+335
-120
1
2		-0.65462-0.64729-0.91349
Dortmund
Schalke 04		71.2%
12.1%		16.6%
-115
+341
-120
+330
2
2		-1.37117-1.36543-1.79348
Mainz 05
Hertha BSC		28.9%
47.0%		24.0%
+135
+220
+130
+215
1
1		-1.26585-1.29000-1.42533
VfB Stuttgart
Eint Frankfurt		26.8%
50.3%		22.8%
+280
+113
+265
+110
1
1		-1.26061-1.27554-1.47709
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig		24.0%
53.2%		22.8%
+675
-255
+650
-250
0
3		-0.35643-0.37280-0.63092
Augsburg
Bayern Munich		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+2400
-966
+2000
-925
3
5		-0.12733-0.14281-0.11838
Eint Frankfurt
Wolfsburg		30.0%
45.7%		24.3%
+198
+147
+195
+145
2
2		-1.27859-1.28717-1.41305
Hertha BSC
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		10.9%
73.7%		15.4%
+585
-190
+525
-195
1
4		-0.44124-0.45966-0.30509
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		80.6%
7.3%		12.1%
-205
+575
-225
+570
2
1		-0.42550-0.41038-0.21589
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		34.2%
40.1%		25.7%
+220
+125
+217
+125
1
2		-0.83993-0.84644-0.91384
Freiburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.0%
58.6%		21.3%
+213
+131
+198
+145
0
0		-1.31472-1.29000-1.54417
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		50.6%
26.2%		23.2%
+292
-105
+305
-110
0
1		-0.70245-0.68681-1.34082
FC Koln
Union Berlin		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%
+325
+105
+355
-105
0
0		-1.20895-1.22404-1.45934
RB Leipzig
Dortmund		40.1%
34.3%		25.6%
+215
+135
+200
+125
1
2		-0.86977-0.85996-1.06959
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.