German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u4-122

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Eint Frankfurt
Borussia Monchengladbach		24.3%
53.8%		21.9%
+159
+173
+155
+166
3
1		-0.97056-0.97729-1.41284
RB Leipzig
Augsburg		73.1%
11.1%		15.9%
-147
+415
-160
+460
3
3		-1.48021-1.51140-1.84124
Bayern Munich
Hoffenheim		79.0%
8.1%		12.9%
-163
+413
-185
+460
2
0		-0.50246-0.46545-0.23634
Werder Bremen
Freiburg		22.7%
54.5%		22.8%
+288
+100
+281
-110
0
2		-0.71048-0.69756-0.60699
Wolfsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		23.0%
53.7%		23.3%
+366
-124
+340
-130
2
2		-1.40430-1.40870-1.45865
VfB Stuttgart
Dortmund		16.5%
64.5%		19.0%
+469
-163
+465
-175
0
5		-0.50094-0.48695-0.43823
FC Koln
Mainz 05		34.8%
40.2%		25.0%
+250
+112
+245
+115
0
5		-0.78231-0.80614-0.91205
Freiburg
Bayern Munich		5.7%
83.6%		10.7%
+540
-209
+600
-240
0
5		-0.40866-0.38505-0.17947
Dortmund
Union Berlin		59.4%
19.6%		21.0%
+158
+202
+150
+185
0
2		-1.12233-1.09050-1.62928
Augsburg
FC Koln		33.8%
41.4%		24.8%
+423
-156
+430
-170
2
3		-0.51931-0.50720-0.88218
Hertha BSC
RB Leipzig		8.8%
77.7%		13.6%
+590
-204
+550
-213
2
3		-0.42948-0.43314-0.25264
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen		30.2%
45.0%		24.8%
+220
+125
+230
+115
2
0		-1.19287-1.23519-1.19733
Borussia Monchengladbach
Wolfsburg		39.3%
34.6%		26.0%
+144
+195
+135
+195
2
2		-1.32723-1.32234-1.34557
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Eint Frankfurt		49.6%
27.3%		23.1%
+180
+159
+169
+155
1
5		-0.97246-0.98067-1.29968
Hoffenheim
Schalke 04		53.5%
23.7%		22.8%
+108
+267
+105
+250
3
0		-0.74198-0.75724-0.62517
Union Berlin
VfB Stuttgart		29.6%
45.6%		24.8%
+186
+192
+175
+175
1
0		-1.04412-1.06025-1.21861
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.