German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hertha BSC
Augsburg		35.8%
38.7%		25.5%
+183
+164
+185
+146
2
0		-1.06039-1.09754-1.02658
RB Leipzig
Eint Frankfurt		55.8%
22.6%		21.6%
+111
+255
+107
+255
0
4		-1.28554-1.30140-1.48523
Schalke 04
VfB Stuttgart		19.5%
59.4%		21.1%
+392
-135
+385
-145
1
1		-1.43238-1.43511-1.55618
Bayern Munich
Union Berlin		82.3%
6.3%		11.4%
-251
+695
-280
+680
1
1		-1.75083-1.76545-2.16954
Freiburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		16.6%
63.5%		19.9%
+344
-121
+321
-124
3
2		-1.51436-1.48386-1.79396
FC Koln
Wolfsburg		15.3%
66.0%		18.7%
+250
+120
+240
+114
4
2		-1.27450-1.26595-1.87634
Hoffenheim
Dortmund		18.4%
61.7%		19.9%
+323
-123
+325
-130
0
1		-0.61269-0.60842-0.48266
Eint Frankfurt
Werder Bremen		52.2%
25.2%		22.5%
+210
+137
+195
+135
4
3		-1.14608-1.12473-0.64953
VfB Stuttgart
FC Koln		45.8%
30.1%		24.0%
+204
+142
+200
+135
0
0		-1.30070-1.30460-1.42566
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern Munich		10.4%
74.7%		14.9%
+1252
-510
+1300
-615
1
1		-2.22609-2.21384-1.90643
Union Berlin
Schalke 04		45.4%
29.3%		25.3%
+141
+228
+129
+215
6
1		-0.88843-0.87733-0.78915
Dortmund
Hertha BSC		65.0%
16.3%		18.7%
-128
+332
-139
+345
1
0		-0.59931-0.56541-0.43035
Augsburg
Hoffenheim		21.0%
57.6%		21.4%
+617
-228
+575
-230
0
1		-0.38772-0.40825-0.55121
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Mainz 05		70.3%
12.7%		16.9%
+200
+135
+185
+140
3
0		-1.13311-1.08726-0.35193
Wolfsburg
RB Leipzig		19.0%
59.5%		21.5%
+450
-170
+490
-190
0
2		-0.49106-0.46681-0.51948
FC Koln
Eint Frankfurt		17.5%
64.0%		18.5%
+240
+115
+230
+110
1
1		-1.37074-1.35662-1.68562
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.