German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen 		30.2%
45.0%		24.8%
+235
+118
+225
+119
1.25
1.57		2.82
o2½-122
u2¾-119
o2½-130
u2½+110
Union Berlin
Freiburg 		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+266
+116
+260
+115
1.16
1.57		2.73
o2¼-113
u2¼-105
o2½+120
u2½-140
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart 		62.8%
17.4%		19.8%
+163
+150
+173
+145
2.17
1.05		3.22
o3½-115
u3½-105
o3½-105
u3½-105
Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Borussia Monchengladbach
FC Koln		65.2%
16.4%		18.5%
+181
+151
+185
+141
1
3		-0.94102-0.91160-1.80996
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05		86.8%
4.4%		8.8%
-310
+800
-355
+825
3
1		-0.30643-0.29538-0.14123
VfB Stuttgart
Union Berlin		36.5%
37.1%		26.3%
+190
+159
+171
+164
3
0		-1.09115-1.04222-1.00808
Eint Frankfurt
Hoffenheim		37.7%
37.4%		25.0%
+275
+107
+281
+105
3
1		-1.34159-1.35441-0.97670
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg		44.4%
30.0%		25.5%
-126
+335
-135
+338
2
1		-0.60669-0.60574-0.81112
Werder Bremen
Dortmund		11.0%
73.5%		15.5%
+892
-355
+875
-370
0
1		-0.27738-0.27648-0.30741
Freiburg
Bayern Munich		5.7%
83.6%		10.7%
+1901
-800
+1800
-900
0
3		-0.14713-0.15000-0.17947
FC Koln
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.6%
76.3%		14.1%
+1019
-350
+980
-379
0
3		-0.27444-0.27954-0.26999
Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen		46.8%
28.9%		24.2%
+157
+167
+155
+160
3
2		-0.97035-0.97862-0.75854
Union Berlin
Dortmund		14.2%
67.8%		18.0%
+400
-137
+365
-150
2
4		-0.56921-0.55995-0.38904
Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart		43.8%
30.8%		25.4%
+318
-112
+295
-110
1
3		-0.66499-0.68730-1.17743
Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach		11.0%
73.5%		15.4%
+226
+120
+215
+120
2
2		-1.36889-1.37737-1.86814
Augsburg
Freiburg		21.8%
55.7%		22.5%
+332
-112
+320
-115
0
2		-0.66419-0.66460-0.58510
Bayern Munich
RB Leipzig		56.2%
21.8%		22.0%
-125
+308
-122
+300
2
2		-1.52671-1.48118-1.51286
VfB Stuttgart
FC Koln		45.8%
30.1%		24.0%
+151
+189
+148
+180
2
0		-0.94683-0.95174-0.78078
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Mainz 05		70.3%
12.7%		16.9%
-156
+425
-172
+440
3
0		-0.51715-0.49541-0.35193
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.24166 
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.26888 
DRatings31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.08484
0.15682
0.18404

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.