German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RB Leipzig
Union Berlin		66.1%
15.0%		18.9%
+129
+238
+120
+235
1
2		-1.23121-1.25180-1.89725
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart		34.6%
39.4%		26.0%
+168
+175
+160
+165
1
0		-0.99802-0.99671-1.06149
Mainz 05
Augsburg		31.3%
43.6%		25.1%
+105
+300
-105
+285
2
1		-0.72954-0.71756-1.16229
Schalke 04
Wolfsburg		13.0%
68.9%		18.1%
+328
-114
+305
-110
0
0		-1.38350-1.34850-1.71014
Hoffenheim
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		17.3%
63.1%		19.6%
+425
-160
+405
-170
3
0		-1.66977-1.66342-1.75360
Werder Bremen
Dortmund		11.0%
73.5%		15.5%
+657
-228
+662
-270
3
2		-2.03516-2.07928-2.20919
Hertha BSC
Borussia Monchengladbach		13.3%
69.9%		16.7%
+525
-183
+500
-210
0
1		-0.45083-0.44055-0.35765
Wolfsburg
Bayern Munich		8.1%
78.4%		13.5%
+1637
-624
+1600
-730
0
2		-0.17304-0.17105-0.24285
Union Berlin
Mainz 05		42.5%
31.9%		25.5%
+250
+122
+235
+127
0
0		-1.23877-1.22431-1.36563
Borussia Monchengladbach
Schalke 04		68.4%
13.8%		17.8%
+130
+211
+120
+205
2
2		-1.36402-1.36967-1.72715
VfB Stuttgart
Werder Bremen		43.5%
31.5%		25.0%
+215
+136
+190
+135
2
2		-1.32171-1.31770-1.38565
Eint Frankfurt
Hertha BSC		50.8%
26.7%		22.5%
+138
+212
+130
+205
1
1		-1.29719-1.30001-1.48992
FC Koln
RB Leipzig		7.7%
79.9%		12.4%
+658
-215
+625
-235
2
2		-1.60924-1.60689-2.08836
Augsburg
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		9.8%
75.4%		14.8%
+872
-298
+825
-310
2
1		-2.29770-2.27283-2.32014
Schalke 04
FC Koln		29.2%
46.6%		24.2%
+250
+110
+295
+100
1
3		-0.77718-0.70934-0.76385
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart		62.8%
17.4%		19.8%
+105
+279
-105
+305
1
1		-1.34385-1.34719-1.61737
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.