German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Hertha BSC		28.9%
47.0%		24.0%
+160
+184
+160
+178
2
1		-0.99013-0.99745-1.24105
Union Berlin
Freiburg		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+362
-115
+330
-120
4
1		-1.54825-1.50575-1.27740
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hoffenheim		54.0%
23.5%		22.4%
+131
+195
+125
+200
4
2		-0.85585-0.83833-0.61552
Wolfsburg
FC Koln		57.3%
21.0%		21.6%
+521
-193
+490
-200
1
0		-1.84966-1.82492-0.55610
Eint Frankfurt
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		20.4%
59.1%		20.6%
+545
-207
+720
-215
0
2		-0.42301-0.39255-0.52631
RB Leipzig
Borussia Monchengladbach		43.8%
31.3%		25.0%
-150
+408
-162
+400
1
3		-1.64517-1.65653-1.16267
Freiburg
Hoffenheim		32.0%
42.6%		25.3%
+200
+135
+190
+135
4
3		-1.12522-1.11173-1.13822
Wolfsburg
VfB Stuttgart		43.8%
30.8%		25.4%
+313
-103
+300
+100
1
1		-1.35728-1.31241-1.37093
Bayern Munich
Mainz 05		86.8%
4.4%		8.8%
-150
+375
-175
+460
1
3		-1.58797-1.75319-3.12995
FC Koln
Augsburg		32.9%
42.3%		24.8%
+132
+213
+130
+210
4
1		-0.86287-0.87666-1.11188
Hertha BSC
Arminia Bielefeld		35.2%
38.1%		26.7%
+172
+182
+180
+172
1
1		-1.22950-1.20848-1.32219
VfB Stuttgart
Hertha BSC		42.1%
33.1%		24.9%
+146
+219
+140
+215
0
2		-1.18189-1.19112-1.10697
Dortmund
Bayern Munich		11.9%
72.1%		16.0%
+712
-305
+700
-325
1
3		-0.31050-0.31652-0.32768
Union Berlin
RB Leipzig		10.8%
73.4%		15.9%
+562
-161
+520
-175
2
1		-1.90784-1.87113-2.22999
Hoffenheim
Eint Frankfurt		29.5%
47.1%		23.4%
+194
+138
+180
+145
2
2		-1.36790-1.34531-1.45111
Borussia Monchengladbach
Freiburg		49.4%
26.7%		23.9%
+325
-118
+310
-120
3
3		-1.42192-1.41535-1.42970
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.