German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
GoalsTotal
Goals
Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich
3.5%
88.8%
7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57
4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML
Final
Goals
Sportsbook
Log Loss
DRatings
Log Loss
Arminia Bielefeld
FC Koln
33.4%
40.6%
26.0%
+700
-229
+670
-225
1
3
-0.38554-0.40428-0.90118
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg
14.5%
66.7%
18.8%
+190
+150
+205
+143
0
5
-0.94636-0.91672-0.40437
RB Leipzig
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
38.2%
35.7%
26.1%
+194
+158
+180
+156
1
0
-1.09835-1.07067-0.96341
Eint Frankfurt
Union Berlin
44.8%
30.8%
24.3%
+296
+105
+280
+100
0
2
-0.73733-0.74087-1.17684
Bayern Munich
Arminia Bielefeld
84.9%
4.9%
10.2%
-562
+1713
-600
+1500
3
0
-0.17659-0.20089-0.16351
FC Koln
Borussia Monchengladbach
11.7%
72.9%
15.4%
+242
+116
+250
+102
3
1
-1.24462-1.29913-2.14969
Wolfsburg
Dortmund
24.4%
52.2%
23.4%
+465
-166
+525
-180
1
6
-0.49451-0.46421-0.64949
VfB Stuttgart
Mainz 05
47.2%
28.7%
24.1%
+270
+105
+290
-104
0
0
-1.31617-1.34419-1.42221
Hertha BSC
Augsburg
35.8%
38.7%
25.5%
+314
-102
+330
-112
1
0
-1.44168-1.49286-1.02658
Hoffenheim
RB Leipzig
14.0%
68.3%
17.7%
+625
-209
+625
-235
0
3
-0.40561-0.39915-0.38126
Freiburg
Eint Frankfurt
28.3%
47.9%
23.8%
+210
+145
+205
+140
2
1
-1.15261-1.15728-1.26199
Union Berlin
Hertha BSC
37.6%
36.4%
26.0%
+134
+260
+135
+260
4
1
-0.86762-0.87498-0.97950
Augsburg
Bayern Munich
3.5%
88.8%
7.6%
+1641
-625
+1800
-700
0
1
-0.17202-0.16079-0.11838
Arminia Bielefeld
Wolfsburg
15.8%
63.5%
20.7%
+458
-142
+440
-145
0
4
-0.55591-0.55741-0.45468
Mainz 05
FC Koln
31.9%
43.6%
24.5%
+170
+175
+175
+169
2
3
-1.04797-1.02374-0.83043
Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
55.6%
22.5%
21.8%
-105
+295
-113
+305
2
0
-0.68738-0.66095-0.58686
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.