German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-850

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+101

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Mainz 05
Augsburg		31.3%
43.6%		25.1%
+130
+235
+122
+237
1
2		-1.23598-1.25959-0.82956
Mainz 05
Borussia Monchengladbach		11.0%
73.5%		15.4%
+206
+143
+205
+140
1
1		-1.28471-1.28258-1.86814
Wolfsburg
Augsburg		56.3%
21.3%		22.4%
+187
+165
+175
+170
0
3		-0.99428-1.02963-1.54520
RB Leipzig
Dortmund		40.1%
34.3%		25.6%
+201
+136
+190
+140
4
1		-1.12292-1.10322-0.91339
Hertha BSC
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		10.9%
73.7%		15.4%
+620
-212
+600
-234
1
2		-0.40944-0.40428-0.30509
Bayern Munich
Freiburg		79.0%
7.9%		13.1%
-201
+552
-210
+540
4
1		-0.42278-0.42181-0.23615
VfB Stuttgart
Arminia Bielefeld		44.0%
30.1%		25.9%
+130
+250
+125
+237
1
1		-1.22991-1.24786-1.35104
FC Koln
Union Berlin		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%
+250
+133
+235
+130
0
1		-0.86365-0.87309-0.67958
Dortmund
FC Koln		68.3%
14.3%		17.3%
-104
+265
-110
+263
1
1		-1.41952-1.43439-1.75290
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Wolfsburg		44.4%
30.0%		25.5%
+130
+220
+120
+220
2
0		-0.86147-0.83605-0.81112
Eint Frankfurt
RB Leipzig		16.5%
64.8%		18.7%
+678
-245
+705
-270
0
0		-1.67446-1.67804-1.67670
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich		4.6%
86.1%		9.3%
+2169
-245
+2200
-700
0
4		-0.18567-0.15977-0.15023
Augsburg
VfB Stuttgart		23.2%
54.3%		22.4%
+385
-120
+325
-115
2
3		-0.62429-0.65917-0.60996
Arminia Bielefeld
Mainz 05		34.5%
38.6%		26.9%
+600
-190
+640
-190
0
4		-0.44785-0.46119-0.95259
Hoffenheim
Hertha BSC		45.4%
30.4%		24.1%
+105
+258
-105
+300
0
3		-1.30188-1.40932-1.18928
Dortmund
Mainz 05		69.1%
13.5%		17.3%
+135
+205
+130
+260
1
0		-0.88143-0.83119-0.36962
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.