German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for March 15, 2026

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Mainz 05
Werder Bremen 		30.2%
45.0%		24.8%
+250
+113
+250
+115
1.25
1.57		2.82
o2¾+100
u2¾-118
o2½-125
u2½+110
Union Berlin
Freiburg 		27.9%
47.1%		25.0%
+266
+116
+260
+116
1.16
1.57		2.73
o2¼-113
u2¼+102
o2½+120
u2½-130
RB Leipzig
VfB Stuttgart 		62.8%
17.4%		19.8%
+167
+148
+160
+147
2.17
1.05		3.22
o3½-108
u3½-111
o3½-115
u3½+100
Games for Mar 14, 2026
Games for Mar 16, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Werder Bremen		67.3%
14.4%		18.3%
+111
+261
+105
+250
3
2		-0.76768-0.76424-0.39641
Hoffenheim
Freiburg		34.0%
40.1%		25.8%
+335
-115
+335
-120
1
2		-0.65462-0.64729-0.91349
Dortmund
Schalke 04		71.2%
12.1%		16.6%
-115
+341
-120
+330
2
2		-1.37117-1.36543-1.79348
Mainz 05
Hertha BSC		28.9%
47.0%		24.0%
+135
+220
+130
+215
1
1		-1.26585-1.29000-1.42533
VfB Stuttgart
Eint Frankfurt		26.8%
50.3%		22.8%
+280
+113
+265
+110
1
1		-1.26061-1.27554-1.47709
Borussia Monchengladbach
RB Leipzig		24.0%
53.2%		22.8%
+675
-255
+650
-250
0
3		-0.35643-0.37280-0.63092
Augsburg
Bayern Munich		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+2400
-966
+2000
-925
3
5		-0.12733-0.14281-0.11838
Eint Frankfurt
Wolfsburg		30.0%
45.7%		24.3%
+198
+147
+195
+145
2
2		-1.27859-1.28717-1.41305
Hertha BSC
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		10.9%
73.7%		15.4%
+585
-190
+525
-195
1
4		-0.44124-0.45966-0.30509
Bayern Munich
VfB Stuttgart		80.6%
7.3%		12.1%
-205
+575
-225
+570
2
1		-0.42550-0.41038-0.21589
Werder Bremen
Augsburg		34.2%
40.1%		25.7%
+220
+125
+217
+125
1
2		-0.83993-0.84644-0.91384
Freiburg
Borussia Monchengladbach		20.0%
58.6%		21.3%
+213
+131
+198
+145
0
0		-1.31472-1.29000-1.54417
Hoffenheim
Mainz 05		50.6%
26.2%		23.2%
+292
-105
+305
-110
0
1		-0.70245-0.68681-1.34082
FC Koln
Union Berlin		26.1%
50.7%		23.2%
+325
+105
+355
-105
0
0		-1.20895-1.22404-1.45934
RB Leipzig
Dortmund		40.1%
34.3%		25.6%
+215
+135
+200
+125
1
2		-0.86977-0.85996-1.06959
Union Berlin
Bayern Munich		4.6%
86.1%		9.3%
+725
-213
+665
-235
0
3		-0.40384-0.40296-0.15023
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.24166 
Sportsbooks31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.26888 
DRatings31-0-2 (0.667)0-1.08484
0.15682
0.18404

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.