German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-825

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+103

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
RB Leipzig
FC Koln		66.4%
18.7%		14.9%
-110
+295
-105
+270
1
1		-1.39380-1.37964-1.90099
Freiburg
Mainz 05		45.9%
31.0%		23.1%
+320
-108
+300
-105
0
0		-1.31543-1.33629-1.46646
Hoffenheim
Arminia Bielefeld		44.9%
31.4%		23.7%
+106
+270
+110
+272
0
0		-1.34385-1.32742-1.43944
Borussia Monchengladbach
Augsburg		57.4%
23.9%		18.7%
+115
+242
+110
+250
0
1		-1.25706-1.29168-1.43242
RB Leipzig
Wolfsburg		47.1%
29.8%		23.1%
+125
+230
+122
+235
0
1		-1.22656-1.25534-1.21043
Borussia Monchengladbach
Union Berlin		50.9%
27.7%		21.3%
+187
+165
+180
+160
1
2		-0.99428-1.00376-1.28240
Hertha BSC
Bayern Munich		8.9%
82.6%		8.5%
+1650
-600
+1550
-700
0
5		-0.17922-0.18223-0.19091
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Augsburg		61.2%
21.3%		17.5%
-140
+425
-140
+392
4
1		-0.56254-0.58173-0.49078
Freiburg
VfB Stuttgart		36.3%
39.6%		24.0%
+240
+115
+237
+115
3
2		-1.26012-1.25751-1.01209
Eint Frankfurt
Arminia Bielefeld		48.7%
29.2%		22.2%
+105
+260
+105
+250
1
1		-1.33351-1.34715-1.50684
Hoffenheim
Dortmund		25.3%
55.5%		19.2%
+599
-240
+560
-260
2
3		-0.37545-0.37198-0.58899
FC Koln
Bayern Munich		8.1%
84.2%		7.7%
+1930
-730
+2000
-810
2
3		-0.15310-0.15344-0.17245
Union Berlin
Hoffenheim		31.2%
46.1%		22.8%
+255
+105
+288
+105
2
2		-1.35728-1.30398-1.48047
Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		32.3%
44.9%		22.8%
+225
+125
+215
+124
0
4		-0.84042-0.84954-0.80113
Dortmund
Freiburg		49.0%
29.0%		22.0%
-130
+350
-136
+400
1
2		-1.52129-1.62095-1.23881
Wolfsburg
Hertha BSC		49.4%
28.7%		21.9%
+122
+235
+130
+234
2
1		-0.83158-0.85668-0.70498
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.