German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-825

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+103

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Augsburg
Eint Frankfurt		25.0%
56.4%		18.6%
+420
-155
+420
-162
0
0		-1.51745-1.49548-1.68099
VfB Stuttgart
RB Leipzig		20.2%
63.2%		16.6%
+550
-190
+563
-215
0
4		-0.44441-0.42704-0.45861
Hertha BSC
FC Koln		36.9%
38.2%		24.9%
+215
+154
+207
+135
1
3		-0.92902-0.90298-0.96176
RB Leipzig
Mainz 05		68.6%
18.3%		13.1%
-179
+675
-240
+650
0
1		-2.01786-2.05338-1.69920
Eint Frankfurt
Dortmund		27.7%
52.2%		20.1%
+545
-195
+525
-220
2
5		-0.42414-0.42498-0.65097
Hoffenheim
Augsburg		45.0%
31.3%		23.7%
+120
+230
+118
+225
4
0		-0.81240-0.81186-0.79920
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Union Berlin		55.0%
25.1%		19.9%
+180
+186
+177
+170
1
1		-1.20371-1.22775-1.61259
Freiburg
Arminia Bielefeld		42.8%
31.1%		26.1%
+150
+205
+150
+204
0
0		-1.21359-1.19277-1.34400
Bayern Munich
Borussia Monchengladbach		61.0%
22.5%		16.4%
-140
+394
-145
+360
1
1		-1.59509-1.49046-1.80612
Holstein Kiel
FC Koln		30.9%
46.6%		22.5%
+425
-140
+430
-150
1
0		-1.68799-1.71497-1.17341
Mainz 05
Wolfsburg		22.0%
60.6%		17.4%
+326
-122
+385
-120
3
2		-1.47709-1.57152-1.51490
Hertha BSC
Hoffenheim		28.5%
50.1%		21.4%
+355
-140
+338
-105
1
2		-0.56644-0.64173-0.69159
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Dortmund		35.6%
39.0%		25.5%
+440
-180
+450
-180
1
3		-0.47387-0.48078-0.94287
Augsburg
Bayern Munich		8.5%
87.1%		4.4%
+1600
-710
+1600
-760
2
5		-0.16500-0.17030-0.13858
Arminia Bielefeld
VfB Stuttgart		28.0%
48.8%		23.2%
+187
+130
+187
+140
2
0		-1.09318-1.07496-1.27282
Borussia Monchengladbach
Werder Bremen		56.8%
24.6%		18.6%
+112
+219
+130
+205
4
2		-0.78067-0.84364-0.56599
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.