German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 5 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
09/09/2022 06:30 PM	Augsburg Werder Bremen	32.0% 42.8%	25.2%	+535 -187 +500 -185	1 0	-1.86569-1.82623	-1.13943
09/04/2022 03:30 PM	Mainz 05 Borussia Monchengladbach	11.0% 73.5%	15.4%	+195 +135 +195 +133	1 0	-1.11599-1.12673	-2.20464
09/04/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Augsburg	35.8% 38.7%	25.5%	+183 +164 +185 +146	2 0	-1.06039-1.09754	-1.02658
09/03/2022 04:30 PM	RB Leipzig Eint Frankfurt	55.8% 22.6%	21.6%	+111 +255 +107 +255	0 4	-1.28554-1.30140	-1.48523
09/03/2022 01:30 PM	Schalke 04 VfB Stuttgart	19.5% 59.4%	21.1%	+392 -135 +385 -145	1 1	-1.43238-1.43511	-1.55618
09/03/2022 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Union Berlin	82.3% 6.3%	11.4%	-251 +695 -280 +680	1 1	-1.75083-1.76545	-2.16954
09/03/2022 01:30 PM	Freiburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen	16.6% 63.5%	19.9%	+344 -121 +321 -124	3 2	-1.51436-1.48386	-1.79396
09/03/2022 01:17 PM	FC Koln Wolfsburg	15.3% 66.0%	18.7%	+250 +120 +240 +114	4 2	-1.27450-1.26595	-1.87634
09/02/2022 06:30 PM	Hoffenheim Dortmund	18.4% 61.7%	19.9%	+323 -123 +325 -130	0 1	-0.61269-0.60842	-0.48266
08/28/2022 03:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt Werder Bremen	52.2% 25.2%	22.5%	+210 +137 +195 +135	4 3	-1.14608-1.12473	-0.64953
08/28/2022 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart FC Koln	45.8% 30.1%	24.0%	+204 +142 +200 +135	0 0	-1.30070-1.30460	-1.42566
08/27/2022 04:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Bayern Munich	10.4% 74.7%	14.9%	+1252 -510 +1300 -615	1 1	-2.22609-2.21384	-1.90643
08/27/2022 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Schalke 04	45.4% 29.3%	25.3%	+141 +228 +129 +215	6 1	-0.88843-0.87733	-0.78915
08/27/2022 01:30 PM	Dortmund Hertha BSC	65.0% 16.3%	18.7%	-128 +332 -139 +345	1 0	-0.59931-0.56541	-0.43035
08/27/2022 01:30 PM	Augsburg Hoffenheim	21.0% 57.6%	21.4%	+617 -228 +575 -230	0 1	-0.38772-0.40825	-0.55121
08/27/2022 01:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Mainz 05	70.3% 12.7%	16.9%	+200 +135 +185 +140	3 0	-1.13311-1.08726	-0.35193

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21588
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21784
DRatings	3	0-3-0 (0.000)	0	-1.40865	-0.19278 -0.19081

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.