German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 6 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/27/2022 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg RB Leipzig	19.0% 59.5%	21.5%	+450 -170 +490 -190	0 2	-0.49106-0.46681	-0.51948
08/21/2022 01:30 PM	FC Koln Eint Frankfurt	17.5% 64.0%	18.5%	+240 +115 +230 +110	1 1	-1.37074-1.35662	-1.68562
08/20/2022 04:30 PM	RB Leipzig Union Berlin	66.1% 15.0%	18.9%	+129 +238 +120 +235	1 2	-1.23121-1.25180	-1.89725
08/20/2022 01:30 PM	Freiburg VfB Stuttgart	34.6% 39.4%	26.0%	+168 +175 +160 +165	1 0	-0.99802-0.99671	-1.06149
08/20/2022 01:30 PM	Mainz 05 Augsburg	31.3% 43.6%	25.1%	+105 +300 -105 +285	2 1	-0.72954-0.71756	-1.16229
08/20/2022 01:30 PM	Schalke 04 Wolfsburg	13.0% 68.9%	18.1%	+328 -114 +305 -110	0 0	-1.38350-1.34850	-1.71014
08/20/2022 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Bayer 04 Leverkusen	17.3% 63.1%	19.6%	+425 -160 +405 -170	3 0	-1.66977-1.66342	-1.75360
08/20/2022 01:30 PM	Werder Bremen Dortmund	11.0% 73.5%	15.5%	+657 -228 +662 -270	3 2	-2.03516-2.07928	-2.20919
08/19/2022 06:30 PM	Hertha BSC Borussia Monchengladbach	13.3% 69.9%	16.7%	+525 -183 +500 -210	0 1	-0.45083-0.44055	-0.35765
08/14/2022 03:30 PM	Wolfsburg Bayern Munich	8.1% 78.4%	13.5%	+1637 -624 +1600 -730	0 2	-0.17304-0.17105	-0.24285
08/14/2022 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Mainz 05	42.5% 31.9%	25.5%	+250 +122 +235 +127	0 0	-1.23877-1.22431	-1.36563
08/13/2022 04:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Schalke 04	68.4% 13.8%	17.8%	+130 +211 +120 +205	2 2	-1.36402-1.36967	-1.72715
08/13/2022 01:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Werder Bremen	43.5% 31.5%	25.0%	+215 +136 +190 +135	2 2	-1.32171-1.31770	-1.38565
08/13/2022 01:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt Hertha BSC	50.8% 26.7%	22.5%	+138 +212 +130 +205	1 1	-1.29719-1.30001	-1.48992
08/13/2022 01:30 PM	FC Koln RB Leipzig	7.7% 79.9%	12.4%	+658 -215 +625 -235	2 2	-1.60924-1.60689	-2.08836
08/13/2022 01:30 PM	Augsburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen	9.8% 75.4%	14.8%	+872 -298 +825 -310	2 1	-2.29770-2.27283	-2.32014

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21588
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21784
DRatings	3	0-3-0 (0.000)	0	-1.40865	-0.19278 -0.19081

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.