German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 8 hr ago

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Completed Games

Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
08/07/2022 03:30 PM	Schalke 04 FC Koln	29.2% 46.6%	24.2%	+250 +110 +295 +100	1 3	-0.77718-0.70934	-0.76385
08/07/2022 01:30 PM	RB Leipzig VfB Stuttgart	62.8% 17.4%	19.8%	+105 +279 -105 +305	1 1	-1.34385-1.34719	-1.61737
08/06/2022 04:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Dortmund	34.7% 39.8%	25.5%	+243 +110 +235 +105	0 1	-0.75590-0.75351	-0.92153
08/06/2022 01:30 PM	Freiburg Augsburg	46.4% 28.7%	24.9%	+117 +251 +110 +245	4 0	-0.79423-0.78858	-0.76789
08/06/2022 01:30 PM	Werder Bremen Wolfsburg	16.4% 63.7%	19.9%	+252 +120 +250 +107	2 2	-1.30125-1.32644	-1.61249
08/06/2022 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Borussia Monchengladbach	20.8% 58.1%	21.1%	+250 +113 +227 +110	1 3	-0.76008-0.77527	-0.54359
08/06/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Union Berlin	28.8% 46.8%	24.4%	+344 -113 +330 -115	1 3	-0.65468-0.66847	-0.75961
08/05/2022 06:30 PM	Bayern Munich Eint Frankfurt	76.6% 9.6%	13.8%	-200 +525 -220 +525	6 1	-0.42609-0.40854	-0.26694
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Dortmund	11.6% 72.7%	15.6%	+455 -180 +428 -185	1 2	-0.46267-0.47385	-0.31829
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Wolfsburg	72.3% 11.4%	16.3%	-235 +552 -230 +515	2 2	-1.83917-1.77484	-1.81419
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Freiburg Bayer 04 Leverkusen	16.6% 63.5%	19.9%	+213 +126 +220 +114	1 2	-0.82241-0.79323	-0.45487
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Hoffenheim Borussia Monchengladbach	20.8% 58.1%	21.1%	+217 +107 +210 +103	1 5	-0.75056-0.75213	-0.54359
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	FC Koln VfB Stuttgart	22.9% 55.4%	21.7%	+205 +125 +185 +125	1 2	-0.82645-0.85828	-0.59133
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt Mainz 05	56.0% 22.6%	21.4%	+300 -115 +305 -125	2 2	-1.42055-1.46564	-1.54215
05/14/2022 01:30 PM	RB Leipzig Arminia Bielefeld	71.7% 11.3%	17.0%	-275 +783 -335 +900	1 1	-1.74023-1.82784	-1.76955
05/08/2022 05:30 PM	Augsburg RB Leipzig	7.9% 79.1%	13.0%	+1300 -410 +1200 -430	0 4	-0.23630-0.25032	-0.23508

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21588
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21784
DRatings	3	0-3-0 (0.000)	0	-1.40865	-0.19278 -0.19081

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.