German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for November 22, 2024

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
Augsburg
Bayern Munich 		3.5%
88.8%		7.6%
+1600
-825

0.67
3.57		4.24
o3¾-120
u3¾+103

Games for Nov 21, 2024
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Schalke 04
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		15.8%
73.2%		11.0%
+950
-330
+1100
-361
1
2		-0.29776-0.27573-0.31256
Eint Frankfurt
Dortmund		27.7%
52.2%		20.1%
+345
-130
+341
-130
2
1		-1.52001-1.51969-1.28197
Augsburg
Freiburg		27.3%
50.8%		21.9%
+360
-118
+360
-120
0
2		-0.64963-0.64745-0.67781
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Hertha BSC		59.9%
23.0%		17.1%
+110
+250
+105
+261
0
3		-1.28374-1.32840-1.46911
Mainz 05
Hoffenheim		26.1%
54.2%		19.8%
+286
-105
+288
+100
2
1		-1.38119-1.37995-0.78023
Borussia Monchengladbach
Schalke 04		62.0%
21.7%		16.3%
-233
+654
-240
+650
3
0		-0.39286-0.39518-0.24423
Wolfsburg
Werder Bremen		50.2%
27.5%		22.3%
-118
+373
-122
+375
2
1		-0.64014-0.64342-0.32191
Dortmund
FC Koln		61.8%
22.4%		15.8%
-208
+550
-215
+575
2
2		-1.16732-1.19224-0.87438
Union Berlin
Eint Frankfurt		28.7%
49.6%		21.6%
+289
-105
+280
-105
2
5		-0.70096-0.71366-0.70094
VfB Stuttgart
Bayern Munich		11.9%
81.2%		6.9%
+1000
-385
+1000
-425
0
4		-0.25616-0.25771-0.20822
RB Leipzig
Arminia Bielefeld		65.8%
18.9%		15.3%
-238
+775
-271
+835
1
0		-0.11903-0.10902-0.20939
Hoffenheim
VfB Stuttgart		36.4%
38.1%		25.5%
+170
+154
+170
+155
0
2		-0.96244-0.97562-0.66992
Eint Frankfurt
RB Leipzig		24.1%
58.4%		17.5%
+434
-154
+425
-120
1
1		-0.70936-0.69908-0.78802
Arminia Bielefeld
Bayer 04 Leverkusen		17.7%
68.4%		14.0%
+700
-227
+690
-246
2
1		-1.15040-1.15173-1.58289
Hertha BSC
Dortmund		20.0%
66.3%		13.7%
+548
-185
+557
-200
0
2		-0.45991-0.45308-0.26374
Bayern Munich
Werder Bremen		82.2%
11.3%		6.5%
-455
+1365
-375
+1200
3
1		-0.06979-0.07961-0.12910
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWin LeagueMake Champions LeagueMake Europa LeagueRelegation PlayoffRelegation
1Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)24.84.64.779.099.6%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)21.35.86.970.90.4%99.9%0.1%0.0%0.0%
3RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)18.43.811.867.00.0%96.7%3.3%0.0%0.0%
4Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)18.99.16.062.70.0%43.4%56.6%0.0%0.0%
5Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)19.38.75.963.90.0%60.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%
6Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)13.210.710.149.70.0%0.0%72.9%0.0%0.0%
7Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)13.113.08.047.20.0%0.0%16.6%0.0%0.0%
8Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)12.112.99.145.30.0%0.0%7.3%0.0%0.0%
9Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)10.914.19.041.70.0%0.0%0.5%0.0%0.0%
11Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.916.16.141.70.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%
12FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)11.316.56.140.10.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
13Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)9.415.79.037.00.0%0.0%0.0%3.8%0.3%
14Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)10.617.26.238.10.0%0.0%0.0%1.1%0.0%
15Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)10.019.05.034.90.0%0.0%0.0%14.4%1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.