German Bundesliga Predictions

Updated 9 hr ago

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Time	Teams	Win	Draw	Best ML	Final Goals	Sportsbook Log Loss	DRatings Log Loss
05/08/2022 03:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Bayern Munich	5.2% 84.9%	9.9%	+900 -355 +835 -375	2 2	-1.93753-1.94031	-2.31567
05/08/2022 01:30 PM	Borussia Monchengladbach Eint Frankfurt	44.1% 31.9%	24.0%	+151 +170 +150 +160	1 1	-1.38585-1.38754	-1.42674
05/07/2022 04:30 PM	Mainz 05 Hertha BSC	28.9% 47.0%	24.0%	+160 +184 +160 +178	2 1	-0.99013-0.99745	-1.24105
05/07/2022 01:30 PM	Union Berlin Freiburg	27.9% 47.1%	25.0%	+362 -115 +330 -120	4 1	-1.54825-1.50575	-1.27740
05/07/2022 01:30 PM	Bayer 04 Leverkusen Hoffenheim	54.0% 23.5%	22.4%	+131 +195 +125 +200	4 2	-0.85585-0.83833	-0.61552
05/07/2022 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg FC Koln	57.3% 21.0%	21.6%	+521 -193 +490 -200	1 0	-1.84966-1.82492	-0.55610
05/02/2022 06:30 PM	Eint Frankfurt Bayer 04 Leverkusen	20.4% 59.1%	20.6%	+545 -207 +720 -215	0 2	-0.42301-0.39255	-0.52631
05/02/2022 06:30 PM	RB Leipzig Borussia Monchengladbach	43.8% 31.3%	25.0%	-150 +408 -162 +400	1 3	-1.64517-1.65653	-1.16267
04/30/2022 04:30 PM	Freiburg Hoffenheim	32.0% 42.6%	25.3%	+200 +135 +190 +135	4 3	-1.12522-1.11173	-1.13822
04/30/2022 01:30 PM	Wolfsburg VfB Stuttgart	43.8% 30.8%	25.4%	+313 -103 +300 +100	1 1	-1.35728-1.31241	-1.37093
04/30/2022 01:30 PM	Bayern Munich Mainz 05	86.8% 4.4%	8.8%	-150 +375 -175 +460	1 3	-1.58797-1.75319	-3.12995
04/30/2022 01:30 PM	FC Koln Augsburg	32.9% 42.3%	24.8%	+132 +213 +130 +210	4 1	-0.86287-0.87666	-1.11188
04/30/2022 01:30 PM	Hertha BSC Arminia Bielefeld	35.2% 38.1%	26.7%	+172 +182 +180 +172	1 1	-1.22950-1.20848	-1.32219
04/24/2022 03:30 PM	VfB Stuttgart Hertha BSC	42.1% 33.1%	24.9%	+146 +219 +140 +215	0 2	-1.18189-1.19112	-1.10697
04/23/2022 04:30 PM	Dortmund Bayern Munich	11.9% 72.1%	16.0%	+712 -305 +700 -325	1 3	-0.31050-0.31652	-0.32768
04/23/2022 01:30 PM	Union Berlin RB Leipzig	10.8% 73.4%	15.9%	+562 -161 +520 -175	2 1	-1.90784-1.87113	-2.22999

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Season Prediction Results

Time Period

	Games	Record (Pct)	No Pick	Log Loss Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model. More on Log Loss	+/-
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21588
Sportsbooks	3	1-2-0 (0.333)	0	-1.21784
DRatings	3	0-3-0 (0.000)	0	-1.40865	-0.19278 -0.19081

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20

#	Team	W	L	T	Pts	Win League	Make Champions League	Make Europa League	Relegation Playoff	Relegation
1	Bayern Munich (22-4-4, 70 pts)	24.8	4.6	4.7	79.0	99.6%	100.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2	Dortmund (19-5-6, 63 pts)	21.3	5.8	6.9	70.9	0.4%	99.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%
3	RB Leipzig (16-3-11, 59 pts)	18.4	3.8	11.8	67.0	0.0%	96.7%	3.3%	0.0%	0.0%
4	Borussia Monchengladbach (17-8-5, 56 pts)	18.9	9.1	6.0	62.7	0.0%	43.4%	56.6%	0.0%	0.0%
5	Bayer 04 Leverkusen (17-8-5, 56 pts)	19.3	8.7	5.9	63.9	0.0%	60.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.0%
6	Wolfsburg (12-9-9, 45 pts)	13.2	10.7	10.1	49.7	0.0%	0.0%	72.9%	0.0%	0.0%
7	Hoffenheim (12-11-7, 43 pts)	13.1	13.0	8.0	47.2	0.0%	0.0%	16.6%	0.0%	0.0%
8	Freiburg (11-11-8, 41 pts)	12.1	12.9	9.1	45.3	0.0%	0.0%	7.3%	0.0%	0.0%
9	Hertha BSC (10-12-8, 38 pts)	10.9	14.1	9.0	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.5%	0.0%	0.0%
11	Eint Frankfurt (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.9	16.1	6.1	41.7	0.0%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%
12	FC Koln (10-15-5, 35 pts)	11.3	16.5	6.1	40.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
13	Augsburg (8-14-8, 32 pts)	9.4	15.7	9.0	37.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	3.8%	0.3%
14	Union Berlin (9-16-5, 32 pts)	10.6	17.2	6.2	38.1	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	1.1%	0.0%
15	Mainz 05 (9-17-4, 31 pts)	10.0	19.0	5.0	34.9	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	14.4%	1.9%

Predictions Methodology

The game and score predictions above do not account for injuries, weather or any other random factor that may be cause the outcome to be swayed. See my disclaimer page for information on the benefits and downfalls about these Bundesliga predictions: disclaimer

The German Bundesliga pits all 18 teams against each other in a home-and-home series for a total of 34 games in a season. The top four teams qualify for the Champions League, and the fifth and sixth teams in the final standings qualify for Europa league. The bottom two teams in the Bundesliga get relegated, while the 16th ranked team plays the third ranked team in 2. Bundesliga to determine who will play in the top division for the next season.

These game predictions should be used for entertainment purposes only. The Season Projection for the Bundesliga is based on a simulation with 1,000 iterations.