Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fiorentina
Udinese		38.2%
32.8%		29.0%
+138
+212
+135
+240
3
2		-0.89717-0.85977-0.96330
Roma
Torino		64.9%
16.2%		18.9%
-168
+447
-178
+470
2
0		-0.50084-0.48794-0.43163
Genoa
Bologna		32.5%
41.9%		25.7%
+685
-200
+630
-190
3
1		-2.08522-2.00708-1.12492
Cagliari
Napoli		11.0%
72.1%		16.9%
+1625
-550
+1525
-550
0
2		-0.20214-0.20795-0.32707
Udinese
Juventus		8.3%
75.8%		15.8%
+790
-250
+750
-248
0
2		-0.36878-0.37879-0.27643
Lazio
Inter		22.9%
53.8%		23.3%
+425
-145
+400
-150
2
2		-1.43687-1.45397-1.45762
Milan
Roma		37.5%
36.3%		26.2%
+235
+125
+223
+120
1
3		-0.82408-0.83326-1.01222
Bologna
Fiorentina		23.2%
53.1%		23.7%
+158
+208
+156
+205
2
3		-1.15817-1.16047-0.63339
Atalanta
Genoa		71.6%
12.3%		16.1%
+136
+220
+130
+370
3
2		-0.88855-0.75118-0.33426
Roma
Atalanta		26.1%
51.7%		22.3%
+295
+104
+280
+110
1
2		-0.73387-0.77072-0.66058
Genoa
Napoli		11.3%
71.7%		17.0%
+1200
-345
+1225
-345
2
2		-1.75308-1.72166-1.77155
Inter
Torino		75.6%
9.6%		14.8%
-145
+460
-140
+425
2
0		-0.55753-0.58214-0.27924
Juventus
Lazio		46.6%
27.6%		25.8%
+248
+140
+234
+135
1
1		-1.16864-1.17782-1.35514
Bologna
Milan		10.4%
74.1%		15.5%
+248
+125
+214
+130
1
3		-0.83154-0.87512-0.30034
Milan
Genoa		67.1%
14.2%		18.6%
-135
+397
-135
+372
2
1		-0.58717-0.60261-0.39843
Juventus
Bologna		75.2%
9.5%		15.3%
+265
+135
+245
+140
1
1		-1.13541-1.13772-1.87582
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.