Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 6, 2025

Completed Games

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TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fiorentina
Milan		16.3%
62.7%		21.0%
+382
-125
+390
-130
2
2		-1.34109-1.34715-1.56303
Udinese
Genoa		36.3%
35.3%		28.3%
+259
+145
+248
+150
0
1		-0.91594-0.94796-1.04001
Torino
Lazio		11.0%
73.0%		16.0%
+400
-125
+385
-115
1
1		-1.31375-1.28946-1.83327
Milan
Napoli		34.6%
37.9%		27.4%
+312
-105
+310
-110
1
2		-0.70122-0.69485-0.96985
Udinese
Inter		9.0%
75.3%		15.8%
+750
-225
+775
-230
1
2		-0.39470-0.39395-0.28421
Atalanta
Fiorentina		59.3%
19.6%		21.1%
+113
+262
+105
+264
0
1		-1.31744-1.33907-1.62918
Genoa
Juventus		6.7%
80.4%		12.9%
+695
-188
+690
-190
0
1		-0.45468-0.46031-0.21819
Inter
Atalanta		38.3%
36.3%		25.4%
+188
+163
+185
+160
2
0		-1.08782-1.08960-0.95988
Juventus
Fiorentina		64.3%
14.9%		20.8%
+137
+242
+135
+240
0
3		-1.26093-1.27018-1.90280
Cagliari
Roma		11.8%
71.9%		16.3%
+650
-200
+610
-210
0
1		-0.43237-0.43905-0.33016
Lazio
Bologna		64.0%
16.4%		19.6%
+278
+137
+285
+130
0
5		-0.88804-0.85932-1.80850
Hellas Verona
Udinese		34.8%
35.5%		29.7%
+420
-127
+420
-130
1
0		-1.68158-1.69097-1.05590
Udinese
Lazio		14.1%
66.0%		19.9%
+395
-117
+425
-120
1
1		-1.28957-1.29452-1.61420
Atalanta
Juventus		26.4%
49.7%		23.9%
+190
+171
+180
+175
4
0		-1.09847-1.07207-1.33355
Fiorentina
Napoli		17.9%
59.6%		22.5%
+585
-170
+600
-185
1
2		-0.49415-0.47630-0.51673
Bologna
Hellas Verona		25.8%
49.3%		24.8%
-135
+495
-130
+441
2
1		-0.57825-0.60969-1.35379
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Season Prediction Results

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 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.34109 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.34715 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.56303
-0.22194
-0.21588

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
Previous columnNext column
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.