Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Dec 20, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cagliari
Juventus		6.5%
80.8%		12.7%
+1300
-425
+1150
-400
1
2		-0.24552-0.26237-0.21326
Hellas Verona
Genoa		40.5%
32.3%		27.2%
+390
+106
+345
+105
1
2		-0.75647-0.75745-1.13016
Milan
Inter		25.4%
50.3%		24.3%
+315
+108
+280
+110
1
0		-1.45775-1.37650-1.36912
Atalanta
Napoli		38.7%
35.4%		25.9%
+252
+136
+220
+140
1
3		-0.89372-0.92591-1.03719
Juventus
Fiorentina		64.3%
14.9%		20.8%
+102
+320
+105
+287
1
1		-1.22946-1.26330-1.56950
Bologna
Udinese		28.9%
44.8%		26.3%
+162
+205
+160
+205
3
0		-0.99785-0.99506-1.24185
Genoa
Cagliari		33.5%
40.1%		26.4%
+164
+230
+173
+215
3
3		-1.07485-1.06973-1.33306
Lazio
Inter		22.9%
53.8%		23.3%
+930
-315
+900
-315
0
2		-0.30982-0.31575-0.61962
Udinese
Roma		14.9%
65.5%		19.6%
+610
-180
+620
-190
0
2		-0.47498-0.46302-0.42259
Napoli
Bologna		64.0%
16.0%		20.0%
+175
+195
+175
+210
0
2		-1.11608-1.15078-1.83302
Fiorentina
Genoa		44.2%
29.5%		26.4%
+180
+204
+185
+185
2
2		-1.08824-1.13314-1.33370
Sassuolo
Atalanta		13.9%
69.5%		16.7%
+588
-197
+600
-225
3
0		-1.96390-1.98850-1.97523
Torino
Juventus		6.4%
81.4%		12.2%
+665
-202
+700
-210
0
0		-1.48122-1.45629-2.10332
Cagliari
Lazio		11.2%
72.3%		16.5%
+500
-155
+475
-147
0
2		-0.53152-0.55406-0.32432
Genoa
Sassuolo		23.1%
54.4%		22.5%
+245
+150
+240
+140
2
1		-1.26567-1.27232-1.46555
Roma
Milan		28.8%
46.7%		24.5%
+262
+138
+250
+140
0
1		-0.90187-0.91599-0.76128
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86657 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.86176 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.28523
0.58134
0.57653

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.