Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Dec 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Udinese		28.3%
45.1%		26.6%
+320
-102
+322
+100
2
0		-1.46746-1.47902-1.26277
Hellas Verona
Cagliari		41.3%
31.6%		27.0%
+315
-103
+325
-110
0
1		-0.70055-0.69283-1.15125
Bologna
Lazio		11.8%
71.7%		16.5%
+377
-120
+390
-120
0
3		-0.65011-0.63688-0.33313
Roma
Napoli		30.8%
43.7%		25.4%
+478
-143
+480
-140
0
1		-0.55799-0.56828-0.82746
Cagliari
Genoa		32.2%
41.9%		25.9%
+212
+150
+190
+160
2
2		-1.21719-1.19544-1.35112
Juventus
Milan		43.1%
30.3%		26.6%
+237
+135
+245
+135
0
0		-1.21892-1.17532-1.32381
Inter
Hellas Verona		66.0%
14.3%		19.7%
-220
+710
-220
+712
5
0		-0.40264-0.40234-0.41542
Napoli
Inter		23.4%
52.5%		24.1%
+370
-120
+360
-125
1
1		-1.35615-1.35062-1.42483
Hellas Verona
Fiorentina		29.2%
43.1%		27.6%
+580
-195
+640
-225
1
3		-0.43913-0.41158-0.84060
Bologna
Roma		12.4%
71.2%		16.4%
+275
+117
+260
+125
3
2		-1.35182-1.31983-2.08361
Udinese
Atalanta		10.8%
73.2%		16.0%
+725
-220
+750
-279
1
2		-0.39595-0.35499-0.31157
Torino
Juventus		6.4%
81.4%		12.2%
+725
-175
+665
-175
0
2		-0.47946-0.48866-0.20557
Milan
Cagliari		67.7%
13.8%		18.5%
-153
+445
-160
+430
3
3		-1.46106-1.44847-1.68686
Cagliari
Lazio		11.2%
72.3%		16.5%
+590
-183
+585
-205
1
2		-0.45982-0.44674-0.32432
Roma
Hellas Verona		53.3%
23.2%		23.5%
-122
+402
-125
+380
2
3		-1.63594-1.60944-1.46236
Fiorentina
Torino		45.8%
28.5%		25.7%
+121
+280
+115
+285
1
0		-0.82075-0.80307-0.78080
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.