Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 7, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Atalanta
Juventus		26.4%
49.7%		23.9%
+190
+171
+180
+175
4
0		-1.09847-1.07207-1.33355
Fiorentina
Napoli		17.9%
59.6%		22.5%
+585
-170
+600
-185
1
2		-0.49415-0.47630-0.51673
Bologna
Hellas Verona		25.8%
49.3%		24.8%
-135
+495
-130
+441
2
1		-0.57825-0.60969-1.35379
Genoa
Cagliari		33.5%
40.1%		26.4%
+248
+160
+215
+155
1
1		-1.10392-1.15195-1.33306
Hellas Verona
Juventus		9.5%
73.7%		16.8%
+925
-297
+900
-310
0
2		-0.32397-0.32511-0.30557
Lazio
Milan		30.0%
44.4%		25.7%
+248
+115
+255
+115
2
1		-1.28215-1.30295-1.20547
Cagliari
Bologna		31.8%
42.7%		25.5%
+465
-135
+469
-135
1
2		-0.57943-0.58571-0.85027
Inter
Napoli		43.4%
30.3%		26.3%
+152
+220
+150
+220
1
1		-1.16283-1.16587-1.33579
Milan
Bologna		66.9%
14.5%		18.6%
+160
+195
+165
+181
1
2		-1.11261-1.07790-1.93109
Juventus
Cagliari		75.6%
9.1%		15.3%
-116
+380
-115
+347
1
0		-0.65229-0.67708-0.27936
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+110
+310
+100
+300
0
1		-1.42941-1.43368-1.01189
Genoa
Inter		7.2%
80.0%		12.8%
+1065
-337
+1050
-350
0
1		-0.29030-0.29682-0.22319
Milan
Torino		68.6%
13.5%		17.9%
-110
+318
-110
+315
1
2		-1.46309-1.46115-2.00389
Inter
Juventus		30.4%
43.0%		26.5%
+106
+302
+110
+282
0
1		-1.42608-1.37607-0.84385
Hellas Verona
Milan		14.4%
65.8%		19.8%
+810
-277
+810
-295
0
1		-0.33117-0.33804-0.41850
Napoli
Lazio		33.2%
39.8%		27.1%
+242
+142
+215
+160
2
2		-1.15922-1.15575-1.30626
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.36698 
Sportsbooks30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.35946 
DRatings30-1-2 (0.333)0-1.34221
0.02476
0.01724

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.