Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Oct 28, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Sassuolo
Hellas Verona		35.4%
37.7%		26.9%
+240
+136
+221
+150
1
0		-1.25653-1.20491-1.03778
Lazio
Genoa		64.1%
16.1%		19.8%
+183
+190
+165
+195
3
0		-1.07455-1.02093-0.44484
Napoli
Milan		30.4%
43.2%		26.4%
+342
-113
+335
-110
1
2		-0.66637-0.68528-0.83972
Hellas Verona
Roma		17.2%
62.2%		20.6%
+775
-235
+690
-225
0
2		-0.38949-0.41285-0.47515
Udinese
Sassuolo		26.8%
48.1%		25.2%
+228
+145
+219
+138
1
3		-0.92614-0.90760-0.73251
Inter
Cagliari		74.8%
9.8%		15.4%
-195
+590
-185
+570
2
0		-0.44918-0.46104-0.29071
Atalanta
Juventus		26.4%
49.7%		23.9%
+330
-101
+326
-110
1
1		-1.24407-1.28562-1.43037
Sassuolo
Inter		11.4%
72.5%		16.0%
+925
-320
+860
-325
1
2		-0.30476-0.31772-0.32107
Atalanta
Torino		73.0%
11.6%		15.4%
+126
+305
+125
+290
3
0		-0.81056-0.82039-0.31537
Roma
Lazio		31.7%
43.2%		25.1%
+178
+190
+171
+200
1
0		-1.05644-1.01655-1.15015
Milan
Udinese		60.9%
17.1%		22.0%
-150
+440
-140
+440
3
0		-0.54361-0.56687-0.49589
Juventus
Hellas Verona		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
-183
+625
-190
+609
1
1		-1.42026-1.42192-1.61833
Genoa
Bologna		32.5%
41.9%		25.7%
+370
+113
+370
+105
1
2		-0.76727-0.74589-0.87067
Bologna
Milan		10.4%
74.1%		15.5%
+405
-128
+370
-120
0
1		-0.61017-0.64758-0.30034
Lazio
Sassuolo		52.6%
24.4%		23.0%
-104
+330
-110
+348
0
1		-1.49277-1.52413-1.41038
Torino
Roma		11.6%
72.6%		15.8%
+640
-190
+620
-200
1
0		-2.03623-2.02518-2.15736
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.