Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Fiorentina
Roma		19.4%
59.0%		21.6%
+425
-130
+400
-135
0
1		-0.59267-0.60161-0.52838
Hellas Verona
Inter		10.3%
73.0%		16.6%
+650
-215
+730
-225
0
1		-0.41465-0.39295-0.31404
Udinese
Cagliari		37.1%
34.7%		28.2%
+230
+158
+235
+150
2
1		-1.22309-1.24029-0.99118
Cagliari
Hellas Verona		24.7%
50.4%		24.9%
+290
+145
+290
+144
2
0		-1.38878-1.39695-1.39991
Bologna
Udinese		28.9%
44.8%		26.3%
-130
+457
-125
+445
0
0		-1.29306-1.25639-1.33697
Torino
Napoli		10.7%
73.0%		16.3%
+875
-265
+850
-261
0
2		-0.35231-0.36241-0.31446
Roma
Inter		21.7%
56.4%		21.8%
+370
-135
+370
-130
1
0		-1.59027-1.59327-1.52717
Lazio
Genoa		64.1%
16.1%		19.8%
+122
+276
+125
+282
2
0		-0.82602-0.83142-0.44484
Fiorentina
Cagliari		45.0%
28.8%		26.2%
+162
+207
+155
+200
2
1		-0.99271-0.97910-0.79840
Udinese
Torino		37.8%
34.4%		27.7%
+245
+150
+245
+140
0
2		-0.93923-0.91887-1.06650
Atalanta
Milan		36.4%
38.1%		25.4%
+165
+161
+165
+165
1
0		-1.00991-1.01033-1.00964
Inter
Bologna		74.2%
10.3%		15.4%
+130
+260
+140
+240
0
1		-1.30856-1.25660-2.27157
Hellas Verona
Roma		17.2%
62.2%		20.6%
+540
-170
+600
-175
0
1		-0.49788-0.48080-0.47515
Roma
Lazio		31.7%
43.2%		25.1%
+145
+228
+146
+215
1
1		-1.17746-1.18797-1.38286
Genoa
Hellas Verona		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+195
+201
+195
+195
0
0		-1.05757-1.04044-1.38019
Bologna
Atalanta		8.8%
78.0%		13.1%
+330
-105
+306
+115
0
2		-0.69133-0.77100-0.24806
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.