Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 27, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Roma
Inter		21.7%
56.4%		21.8%
+525
-170
+515
-173
2
5		-0.49676-0.49559-0.57208
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+107
+310
+105
+305
1
0		-0.76164-0.76871-1.05481
Cagliari
Sassuolo		22.5%
55.3%		22.2%
+292
+116
+305
+110
1
2		-0.80502-0.79164-0.59229
Inter
Fiorentina		62.9%
16.2%		20.8%
-156
+450
-159
+425
1
1		-1.44549-1.45818-1.56873
Hellas Verona
Atalanta		12.5%
70.4%		17.1%
+800
-255
+755
-258
0
1		-0.36585-0.37675-0.35055
Lazio
Bologna		64.0%
16.4%		19.6%
+235
+132
+240
+135
2
0		-1.24278-1.27018-0.44665
Sassuolo
Juventus		10.5%
73.6%		15.9%
+950
-340
+975
-370
1
1		-1.82579-1.81634-1.83923
Torino
Milan		9.6%
75.5%		14.9%
+875
-265
+850
-280
2
3		-0.34953-0.35054-0.28143
Udinese
Genoa		36.3%
35.3%		28.3%
+298
+120
+290
+115
2
0		-1.41543-1.40919-1.01264
Napoli
Cagliari		64.8%
15.2%		20.0%
-130
+475
-140
+465
1
0		-0.60325-0.58796-0.43434
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
-122
+383
-120
+365
0
1		-1.60714-1.57296-0.97891
Bologna
Sassuolo		23.6%
54.2%		22.2%
+205
+152
+215
+144
1
0		-1.14429-1.18365-1.44498
Genoa
Hellas Verona		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+144
+245
+142
+235
2
0		-0.92447-0.92786-1.37496
Juventus
Udinese		69.8%
11.4%		18.8%
-183
+580
-190
+555
1
0		-0.46455-0.46778-0.36010
Atalanta
Inter		28.6%
47.7%		23.7%
+525
-190
+495
-190
1
1		-1.54952-1.54853-1.43889
Sassuolo
Lazio		18.1%
61.7%		20.2%
+255
+125
+241
+130
1
1		-1.21190-1.19191-1.59840
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36540 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.35529 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.52489
-0.15949
-0.16960

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.