Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 10, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Napoli
Juventus		21.5%
54.3%		24.1%
+230
+147
+240
+141
0
0		-1.19412-1.18446-1.42101
Torino
Hellas Verona		24.3%
51.2%		24.4%
+185
+190
+183
+181
3
2		-1.07061-1.07669-1.41375
Hellas Verona
Lazio		16.2%
62.8%		21.0%
+500
-175
+560
-175
1
2		-0.49786-0.49469-0.46544
Napoli
Cagliari		64.8%
15.2%		20.0%
-120
+365
-115
+355
4
0		-0.63645-0.65395-0.43434
Fiorentina
Atalanta		14.2%
67.7%		18.1%
+370
-117
+320
-110
2
3		-0.63968-0.67480-0.39078
Roma
Genoa		63.4%
17.0%		19.6%
+123
+257
+125
+252
1
1		-1.23564-1.23564-1.63041
Roma
Juventus		19.9%
58.2%		21.9%
+400
-125
+400
-135
0
0		-1.32381-1.36207-1.51832
Hellas Verona
Genoa		40.5%
32.3%		27.2%
+305
+111
+310
+110
2
0		-1.42234-1.44308-0.90374
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
+164
+178
+160
+175
2
2		-1.26631-1.25467-1.31733
Atalanta
Inter		28.6%
47.7%		23.7%
+550
-190
+550
-206
0
4		-0.44893-0.44149-0.74057
Juventus
Hellas Verona		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
-120
+395
-130
+390
3
0		-0.63645-0.61953-0.40048
Bologna
Napoli		11.5%
71.5%		16.9%
+327
-104
+315
-102
0
3		-0.70702-0.72677-0.33515
Atalanta
Torino		73.0%
11.6%		15.4%
+121
+267
+115
+260
1
2		-1.32339-1.32494-2.15382
Lazio
Udinese		57.9%
19.2%		23.0%
+132
+250
+125
+250
1
2		-1.27690-1.29927-1.65177
Roma
Cagliari		64.1%
16.5%		19.3%
+111
+280
+100
+285
0
0		-1.28554-1.30137-1.64382
Napoli
Hellas Verona		54.4%
21.3%		24.3%
-140
+455
-140
+410
0
3		-1.74491-1.67772-1.54651
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.97026 
Sportsbooks21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.96856 
DRatings21-0-1 (0.750)0-0.94622
0.02404
0.02235

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.