Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 14, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Udinese
Hellas Verona		28.7%
43.2%		28.1%
+176
+208
+174
+200
3
1		-1.05005-1.05019-1.24894
Milan
Roma		37.5%
36.3%		26.2%
+206
+171
+200
+180
1
1		-1.11602-1.12887-1.34132
Napoli
Juventus		21.5%
54.3%		24.1%
+395
-112
+385
-110
0
3		-0.67268-0.68732-0.61065
Bologna
Genoa		33.5%
40.7%		25.7%
+146
+237
+160
+240
2
3		-1.24344-1.23577-0.89806
Cagliari
Fiorentina		22.1%
54.1%		23.8%
+392
-122
+375
-117
2
1		-1.62877-1.60102-1.50973
Roma
Torino		64.9%
16.2%		18.9%
-109
+365
-114
+370
2
0		-0.68548-0.66861-0.43163
Fiorentina
Bologna		43.9%
30.1%		26.0%
+215
+137
+240
+135
2
1		-1.18039-1.24264-0.82337
Juventus
Cagliari		75.6%
9.1%		15.3%
-190
+645
-200
+590
0
1		-2.04099-1.98275-2.40130
Sassuolo
Napoli		17.6%
61.9%		20.5%
+755
-225
+760
-235
0
1		-0.40362-0.40110-0.47939
Inter
Udinese		68.8%
12.4%		18.8%
-214
+680
-231
+685
1
0		-0.41488-0.40611-0.37381
Bologna
Hellas Verona		25.8%
49.3%		24.8%
+115
+295
+116
+280
3
2		-0.79297-0.81276-1.35379
Cagliari
Genoa		32.2%
41.9%		25.9%
+315
+120
+315
+120
0
3		-0.82235-0.82572-0.86910
Napoli
Inter		23.4%
52.5%		24.1%
+457
-138
+434
-135
2
2		-1.32351-1.30948-1.42483
Lazio
Hellas Verona		54.2%
21.9%		23.9%
+140
+268
+140
+249
1
0		-0.91048-0.92238-0.61218
Milan
Fiorentina		54.1%
22.0%		23.9%
+123
+253
+120
+250
1
1		-1.23450-1.24698-1.43292
Torino
Atalanta		8.2%
79.2%		12.6%
+575
-168
+610
-180
0
2		-0.50119-0.49030-0.23367
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.