Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

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More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 11, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Napoli
Lazio		33.2%
39.8%		27.1%
+242
+142
+215
+160
2
2		-1.15922-1.15575-1.30626
Cagliari
Atalanta		8.4%
78.6%		13.0%
+550
-187
+540
-190
0
0		-1.50846-1.51063-2.03953
Torino
Bologna		31.4%
43.5%		25.1%
+468
-129
+425
-125
2
3		-0.60272-0.62715-0.83287
Fiorentina
Inter		11.8%
70.5%		17.7%
+655
-210
+610
-225
1
2		-0.40750-0.41048-0.34961
Udinese
Napoli		13.8%
65.7%		20.5%
+728
-220
+725
-230
1
1		-1.53414-1.51709-1.58645
Genoa
Torino		34.1%
39.8%		26.0%
+263
+140
+260
+140
1
1		-1.11246-1.09163-1.34654
Atalanta
Hellas Verona		62.5%
17.3%		20.1%
-215
+670
-215
+625
5
0		-0.40680-0.43106-0.46944
Inter
Fiorentina		62.9%
16.2%		20.8%


0
3		-1.81769
Lazio
Cagliari		64.8%
15.6%		19.5%
+102
+293
+100
+315
2
1		-0.73380-0.71947-0.43326
Napoli
Roma		35.0%
38.6%		26.4%
+119
+267
+135
+255
1
1		-1.22557-1.18267-1.33037
Inter
Milan		41.0%
32.6%		26.3%
-112
+348
-115
+330
1
1		-1.31987-1.33530-1.33499
Genoa
Fiorentina		22.7%
53.3%		24.0%
+385
-115
+390
-120
1
2		-0.64440-0.62937-0.62974
Torino
Atalanta		8.2%
79.2%		12.6%
+525
-173
+575
-185
1
1		-1.45719-1.46981-2.07036
Fiorentina
Lazio		18.3%
59.7%		21.9%
+290
+110
+275
+110
2
1		-1.38318-1.35806-1.69570
Roma
Udinese		57.1%
20.3%		22.6%
+148
+213
+135
+220
2
1		-0.93367-0.88605-0.55982
Juventus
Napoli		45.3%
28.1%		26.6%
+230
+155
+240
+145
1
2		-0.97080-0.93433-1.27043
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.