Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Dec 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Atalanta
Napoli		38.7%
35.4%		25.9%
+248
+130
+260
+117
3
0		-1.27189-1.30900-0.95060
Juventus
Udinese		69.8%
11.4%		18.8%
+104
+325
+105
+360
2
0		-0.74106-0.73064-0.36010
Torino
Roma		11.6%
72.6%		15.8%
+380
-116
+390
-120
0
1		-0.64084-0.62937-0.32010
Fiorentina
Genoa		44.2%
29.5%		26.4%
-143
+448
-145
+425
1
0		-0.56045-0.56572-0.81701
Napoli
Milan		30.4%
43.2%		26.4%
+168
+187
+175
+180
2
0		-1.01013-1.03967-1.19030
Bologna
Cagliari		34.2%
39.8%		26.0%
+134
+237
+130
+235
2
0		-0.86819-0.87582-1.07365
Roma
Fiorentina		49.8%
25.9%		24.3%
+190
+160
+194
+155
1
5		-0.98746-0.97992-1.35089
Juventus
Inter		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+412
-123
+380
-125
4
4		-1.31535-1.30122-1.28790
Genoa
Lazio		11.6%
71.7%		16.7%
+740
-235
+710
-235
0
3		-0.38731-0.39158-0.33290
Hellas Verona
Atalanta		12.5%
70.4%		17.1%
+1100
-345
+975
-335
1
6		-0.27950-0.30519-0.35055
Cagliari
Udinese		27.6%
45.9%		26.4%
+265
+125
+255
+125
0
2		-0.84139-0.85849-0.77816
Inter
Roma		47.0%
28.7%		24.3%
-105
+317
-115
+320
1
0		-0.69840-0.66460-0.75424
Torino
Cagliari		32.5%
41.7%		25.8%
+240
+142
+240
+139
2
3		-0.91837-0.91091-0.87431
Lazio
Juventus		21.0%
55.6%		23.3%
+310
+110
+295
+115
0
1		-0.76934-0.79769-0.58632
Udinese
Milan		12.5%
68.6%		18.9%
+770
-265
+780
-300
0
1		-0.35113-0.33701-0.37669
Bologna
Genoa		33.5%
40.7%		25.7%
+100
+347
+115
+326
2
2		-1.23093-1.16456-1.35778
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.