Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Dec 28, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Milan
Fiorentina		54.1%
22.0%		23.9%
+100
+273
+100
+266
1
2		-1.35058-1.34358-1.51390
Cagliari
Juventus		6.5%
80.8%		12.7%
+640
-195
+765
-254
1
1		-1.50481-1.61752-2.06696
Torino
Inter		6.8%
81.0%		12.1%
+925
-295
+980
-330
2
3		-0.32106-0.30257-0.21046
Genoa
Atalanta		8.7%
78.0%		13.2%
+675
-200
+650
-220
1
5		-0.41036-0.40386-0.24794
Lazio
Torino		65.7%
15.3%		19.1%
+155
+215
+155
+195
3
2		-0.95797-0.97880-0.42079
Atalanta
Bologna		71.5%
12.5%		16.0%
+167
+196
+162
+191
1
1		-1.21976-1.20028-1.83339
Juventus
Genoa		75.1%
9.3%		15.5%
-122
+440
-125
+435
3
0		-0.60734-0.62796-0.28630
Inter
Udinese		68.8%
12.4%		18.8%
-205
+710
-230
+655
3
2		-0.41020-0.40677-0.37381
Milan
Inter		25.4%
50.3%		24.3%
+450
-145
+410
-145
2
1		-1.72811-1.67579-1.36912
Udinese
Roma		14.9%
65.5%		19.6%
+415
-142
+420
-143
0
3		-0.55766-0.56054-0.42259
Lazio
Fiorentina		50.8%
24.5%		24.7%
+230
+136
+223
+135
1
2		-0.88361-0.89187-1.40797
Napoli
Juventus		21.5%
54.3%		24.1%
+230
+147
+240
+141
0
0		-1.19412-1.18446-1.42101
Torino
Hellas Verona		24.3%
51.2%		24.4%
+185
+190
+183
+181
3
2		-1.07061-1.07669-1.41375
Hellas Verona
Lazio		16.2%
62.8%		21.0%
+500
-175
+560
-175
1
2		-0.49786-0.49469-0.46544
Napoli
Cagliari		64.8%
15.2%		20.0%
-120
+365
-115
+355
4
0		-0.63645-0.65395-0.43434
Fiorentina
Atalanta		14.2%
67.7%		18.1%
+370
-117
+320
-110
2
3		-0.63968-0.67480-0.39078
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.