Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Atalanta
Torino		73.0%
11.6%		15.4%
+121
+267
+115
+260
1
2		-1.32339-1.32494-2.15382
Lazio
Udinese		57.9%
19.2%		23.0%
+132
+250
+125
+250
1
2		-1.27690-1.29927-1.65177
Roma
Cagliari		64.1%
16.5%		19.3%
+111
+280
+100
+285
0
0		-1.28554-1.30137-1.64382
Napoli
Hellas Verona		54.4%
21.3%		24.3%
-140
+455
-140
+410
0
3		-1.74491-1.67772-1.54651
Udinese
Bologna		36.0%
36.1%		27.9%
+320
+107
+330
+110
1
1		-1.21787-1.17328-1.27676
Torino
Milan		9.6%
75.5%		14.9%
+625
-190
+625
-205
2
2		-1.50180-1.51467-1.90495
Inter
Genoa		74.4%
10.1%		15.5%
-200
+640
-210
+625
2
2		-1.51027-1.50180-1.86439
Fiorentina
Atalanta		14.2%
67.7%		18.1%
+470
-182
+460
-176
3
2		-1.77437-1.76055-1.95003
Inter
Hellas Verona		66.0%
14.3%		19.7%
-241
+635
-225
+580
2
2		-1.71397-1.64807-1.62623
Udinese
Frosinone		60.1%
16.3%		23.6%
+208
+162
+200
+155
1
0		-1.14360-1.14263-0.50928
Sassuolo
Lazio		18.1%
61.7%		20.2%
+815
-300
+815
-320
1
1		-1.76726-1.76387-1.59840
Torino
Atalanta		8.2%
79.2%		12.6%
+190
+150
+175
+165
0
3		-0.93491-1.00092-0.23367
Bologna
Genoa		33.5%
40.7%		25.7%
+157
+195
+158
+215
0
2		-1.11605-1.16386-0.89806
Fiorentina
Cagliari		45.0%
28.8%		26.2%
-140
+400
-140
+379
3
2		-0.57180-0.58327-0.79840
Juventus
Bologna		75.2%
9.5%		15.3%
+182
+175
+185
+170
3
3		-1.18466-1.17432-1.87582
Genoa
Roma		12.2%
71.2%		16.5%
+670
-225
+615
-205
0
1		-0.40208-0.43094-0.33923
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.