Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 19, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Genoa
Fiorentina		22.7%
53.3%		24.0%
+385
-115
+390
-120
1
2		-0.64440-0.62937-0.62974
Torino
Atalanta		8.2%
79.2%		12.6%
+525
-173
+575
-185
1
1		-1.45719-1.46981-2.07036
Fiorentina
Lazio		18.3%
59.7%		21.9%
+290
+110
+275
+110
2
1		-1.38318-1.35806-1.69570
Roma
Udinese		57.1%
20.3%		22.6%
+148
+213
+135
+220
2
1		-0.93367-0.88605-0.55982
Juventus
Napoli		45.3%
28.1%		26.6%
+230
+155
+240
+145
1
2		-0.97080-0.93433-1.27043
Cagliari
Torino		33.4%
40.7%		25.9%
+275
+125
+260
+120
0
2		-0.84109-0.83609-0.89916
Lazio
Hellas Verona		54.2%
21.9%		23.9%
-130
+412
-130
+400
3
0		-0.60088-0.60899-0.61218
Torino
Fiorentina		21.7%
55.0%		23.3%
+420
-128
+450
-133
1
1		-1.31193-1.27999-1.45758
Napoli
Atalanta		27.9%
47.9%		24.2%
+235
+125
+250
+120
3
2		-1.25836-1.30420-1.27705
Milan
Juventus		23.4%
52.2%		24.4%
+235
+137
+230
+135
0
2		-0.89722-0.90135-0.65049
Genoa
Roma		12.2%
71.2%		16.5%
+715
-213
+675
-205
1
3		-0.41003-0.43311-0.33923
Bologna
Inter		7.4%
79.9%		12.7%
+640
-190
+610
-200
2
2		-1.48122-1.47046-2.06483
Juventus
Atalanta		40.4%
33.8%		25.8%
+290
+117
+290
+115
1
1		-1.19244-1.18567-1.35290
Hellas Verona
Napoli		15.8%
62.8%		21.3%
+900
-292
+1000
-335
0
2		-0.32927-0.30317-0.46488
Roma
Bologna		63.2%
17.4%		19.4%
+191
+170
+175
+172
2
2		-1.17840-1.19501-1.63928
Cagliari
Milan		9.9%
74.6%		15.5%
+925
-305
+925
-330
1
1		-1.73966-1.75800-1.86510
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.