Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Feb 27, 2021

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Torino		76.3%
8.8%		14.8%
-197
+615
-200
+550
2
2		-1.56337-1.52827-1.90994
Cagliari
Milan		9.9%
74.6%		15.5%
+865
-265
+850
-275
2
1		-2.30219-2.28918-2.31253
Roma
Hellas Verona		53.3%
23.2%		23.5%
-286
+900
-275
+850
2
0		-0.33434-0.34803-0.62867
Udinese
Napoli		13.8%
65.7%		20.5%
+580
-179
+585
-180
0
1		-0.46480-0.46842-0.41933
Inter
Bologna		74.2%
10.3%		15.4%
-101
+277
+106
+250
3
3		-1.35954-1.34492-1.86788
Atalanta
Fiorentina		59.3%
19.6%		21.1%
+119
+227
+115
+221
1
1		-1.34052-1.35418-1.55495
Torino
Cagliari		32.5%
41.7%		25.8%
+290
+120
+290
+122
1
2		-0.82244-0.83165-0.87431
Bologna
Atalanta		8.8%
78.0%		13.1%
+368
-136
+357
-135
1
0		-1.57775-1.56189-2.42554
Hellas Verona
Inter		10.3%
73.0%		16.6%
+785
-275
+790
-290
1
1		-1.70210-1.72670-1.79535
Fiorentina
Juventus		10.8%
71.4%		17.7%
+880
-310
+835
-322
2
0		-2.31689-2.27838-2.22193
Milan
Genoa		67.1%
14.2%		18.6%
-141
+445
-135
+440
2
1		-0.57065-0.57688-0.39843
Lazio
Roma		34.6%
39.8%		25.6%
+600
-180
+550
-198
0
2		-0.46817-0.44618-0.92243
Bologna
Napoli		11.5%
71.5%		16.9%
+575
-180
+570
-185
3
2		-1.93551-1.93794-2.15978
Atalanta
Milan		36.4%
38.1%		25.4%
+230
+131
+246
+130
3
2		-1.22608-1.26333-1.00964
Genoa
Fiorentina		22.7%
53.3%		24.0%
+305
+105
+285
+109
0
0		-1.24164-1.23433-1.42616
Inter
Lazio		44.6%
29.9%		25.6%
-120
+340
-120
+340
3
0		-0.64139-0.65177-0.80822
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.