Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 27, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Milan		43.1%
30.3%		26.6%
+183
+175
+179
+175
0
0		-1.17909-1.18172-1.32381
Inter
Torino		75.6%
9.6%		14.8%
-250
+710
-260
+675
2
2		-1.67046-1.65942-1.91190
Sassuolo
Fiorentina		32.5%
41.3%		26.2%
+323
+103
+340
-105
0
0		-1.24664-1.22472-1.33895
Roma
Bologna		63.2%
17.4%		19.4%
+115
+270
+125
+255
2
0		-0.80053-0.83880-0.45883
Bologna
Juventus		6.8%
80.5%		12.6%
+625
-215
+640
-240
0
2		-0.41683-0.39242-0.21648
Milan
Hellas Verona		57.6%
19.6%		22.8%
-185
+620
-185
+610
1
0		-0.46646-0.46836-0.55224
Atalanta
Roma		42.0%
33.8%		24.2%
+196
+150
+190
+150
1
1		-1.24890-1.24500-1.41956
Lazio
Napoli		32.0%
41.4%		26.6%
+680
-188
+640
-190
2
0		-2.08643-2.05027-1.14056
Cagliari
Inter		7.1%
80.3%		12.7%
+1225
-400
+1150
-440
0
3		-0.25799-0.25231-0.21956
Lazio
Fiorentina		50.8%
24.5%		24.7%
+225
+147
+230
+145
0
1		-0.93379-0.92930-1.40797
Sassuolo
Genoa		45.0%
30.3%		24.7%
+271
+118
+265
+116
1
2		-0.81281-0.80930-1.19557
Juventus
Atalanta		40.4%
33.8%		25.8%
+131
+220
+130
+222
1
0		-0.87108-0.86669-0.90691
Udinese
Milan		12.5%
68.6%		18.9%
+700
-225
+760
-255
3
0		-2.11354-2.19804-2.07976
Hellas Verona
Torino		42.1%
31.3%		26.6%
+340
+102
+350
+105
1
2		-0.74701-0.72198-1.16107
Milan
Napoli		34.6%
37.9%		27.4%
+241
+142
+230
+145
0
1		-0.91041-0.93754-0.96985
Genoa
Juventus		6.7%
80.4%		12.9%
+775
-240
+760
-275
0
2		-0.38293-0.35858-0.21819
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.36540 
Sportsbooks30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.35529 
DRatings30-0-3 (0.500)0-1.52489
-0.15949
-0.16960

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.