Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Roma		49.0%
26.5%		24.5%
+162
+199
+160
+192
1
1		-1.20221-1.17987-1.40609
Genoa
Milan		10.2%
74.2%		15.6%
+670
-230
+670
-250
3
3		-1.63594-1.64455-1.85758
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona		34.8%
36.4%		28.8%
+125
+260
+130
+243
1
2		-1.31041-1.27065-1.01189
Inter
Sassuolo		64.9%
15.9%		19.1%
-200
+520
-188
+470
0
1		-1.85937-1.78064-1.83778
Bologna
Torino		34.8%
39.5%		25.7%
+205
+178
+195
+187
0
0		-1.10803-1.09184-1.35915
Cagliari
Genoa		32.2%
41.9%		25.9%
+285
+120
+245
+128
0
3		-0.80836-0.86907-0.86910
Sassuolo
Fiorentina		32.5%
41.3%		26.2%
+535
-170
+520
-165
1
5		-0.48752-0.49837-0.88448
Roma
Napoli		30.8%
43.7%		25.4%
+293
-103
+300
-105
2
2		-1.33991-1.32013-1.36928
Udinese
Bologna		36.0%
36.1%		27.9%
+540
-158
+515
-165
1
1		-1.37607-1.38226-1.27676
Torino
Inter		6.8%
81.0%		12.1%
+590
-178
+575
-190
0
2		-0.46888-0.46844-0.21046
Hellas Verona
Lazio		16.2%
62.8%		21.0%
+500
-164
+485
-165
0
1		-0.51029-0.51585-0.46544
Milan
Juventus		23.4%
52.2%		24.4%
+280
+113
+270
+115
0
0		-1.25016-1.22520-1.41157
Roma
Udinese		57.1%
20.3%		22.6%


2
1		-0.55982
Inter
Milan		41.0%
32.6%		26.3%
+106
+280
+105
+270
2
1		-0.74501-0.75683-0.89057
Bologna
Roma		12.4%
71.2%		16.4%
+265
+140
+241
+135
3
1		-1.31628-1.26926-2.08361
Frosinone
Torino		14.9%
64.7%		20.4%
+440
-140
+415
-140
0
0		-1.36618-1.36496-1.58870
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.15924 
Sportsbooks20-1-0 (0.000)0-1.13346 
DRatings20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.64060
-0.48137
-0.50714

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.