Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cagliari
Napoli		11.0%
72.1%		16.9%
+648
-225
+780
-255
1
2		-0.38587-0.34954-0.32707
Juventus
Genoa		75.1%
9.3%		15.5%
+107
+394
+110
+405
1
1		-1.10603-1.09491-1.86117
Sassuolo
Cagliari		45.9%
29.6%		24.6%
+207
+156
+180
+164
1
2		-0.94046-1.00038-1.21909
Fiorentina
Roma		19.4%
59.0%		21.6%
+335
+115
+310
+100
1
1		-1.24337-1.26111-1.53229
Bologna
Salernitana		57.9%
20.0%		22.1%
+110
+387
-120
+365
2
1		-0.69641-0.64747-0.54637
Udinese
Inter		9.0%
75.3%		15.8%
+1400
-368
+1200
-450
0
4		-0.25130-0.24301-0.28421
Milan
Atalanta		30.2%
45.5%		24.3%
+198
+160
+187
+155
2
3		-0.97755-0.98323-0.78774
Lazio
Hellas Verona		54.2%
21.9%		23.9%
+102
+355
-110
+326
1
1		-1.25330-1.27508-1.43158
Napoli
Juventus		21.5%
54.3%		24.1%
+250
+130
+245
+125
0
1		-0.85616-0.85299-0.61065
Torino
Bologna		31.4%
43.5%		25.1%
+252
+145
+252
+135
0
2		-0.91081-0.89123-0.83287
Inter
Juventus		30.4%
43.0%		26.5%
+130
+255
+125
+243
1
1		-1.19171-1.21053-1.32655
Udinese
Roma		14.9%
65.5%		19.6%
+500
-160
+485
-155
1
3		-0.52012-0.54230-0.42259
Fiorentina
Milan		16.3%
62.7%		21.0%
+280
+115
+255
+110
0
1		-0.78344-0.79264-0.46662
Napoli
Atalanta		27.9%
47.9%		24.2%
+194
+170
+170
+170
2
1		-1.07461-1.02340-1.27705
Lazio
Salernitana		81.1%
6.5%		12.4%
-113
+385
-120
+345
1
2		-1.58592-1.53973-2.73970
Roma
Lazio		31.7%
43.2%		25.1%
+180
+204
+172
+200
0
0		-1.15097-1.12098-1.38286
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.