Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Udinese
Hellas Verona		28.7%
43.2%		28.1%
+200
+185
+195
+179
0
1		-1.07593-1.06970-0.83840
Juventus
Cagliari		75.6%
9.1%		15.3%
-110
+375
-118
+376
2
2		-1.25180-1.26823-1.87699
Lazio
Genoa		64.1%
16.1%		19.8%
+145
+217
+145
+220
1
0		-0.93064-0.94246-0.44484
Hellas Verona
Atalanta		12.5%
70.4%		17.1%
+615
-223
+575
-210
2
2		-1.61475-1.55946-1.76697
Genoa
Fiorentina		22.7%
53.3%		24.0%
+410
-120
+375
-120
1
1		-1.28989-1.28316-1.42616
Cagliari
Inter		7.1%
80.3%		12.7%
+1700
-585
+1500
-530
2
2		-2.10579-2.06294-2.06712
Milan
Sassuolo		56.0%
21.9%		22.1%
-114
+310
-125
+325
3
3		-1.39344-1.41679-1.50815
Frosinone
Napoli		4.6%
84.1%		11.3%
+825
-300
+775
-300
2
2		-1.76615-1.75730-2.18178
Juventus
Torino		76.3%
8.8%		14.8%
+130
+285
+130
+270
0
0		-1.12609-1.12488-1.90994
Inter
Udinese		68.8%
12.4%		18.8%
-245
+740
-246
+700
2
1		-0.37302-0.38657-0.37381
Fiorentina
Juventus		10.8%
71.4%		17.7%
+432
-128
+433
-125
0
1		-0.60411-0.61234-0.33648
Genoa
Hellas Verona		25.3%
49.5%		25.2%
+207
+170
+210
+165
2
1		-1.15617-1.17183-1.37496
Atalanta
Cagliari		72.2%
11.9%		15.9%
-127
+385
-130
+377
1
2		-1.60405-1.59969-2.12972
Bologna
Frosinone		58.3%
18.9%		22.8%
-107
+328
-110
+320
0
0		-1.30885-1.29931-1.47990
Lazio
Roma		34.6%
39.8%		25.6%
+295
+110
+279
+115
0
1		-0.77831-0.80609-0.92243
Udinese
Sassuolo		26.8%
48.1%		25.2%
+168
+182
+165
+190
1
1		-1.23488-1.19726-1.38015
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.15924 
Sportsbooks20-1-0 (0.000)0-1.13346 
DRatings20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.64060
-0.48137
-0.50714

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.