Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Bologna
Sassuolo		23.6%
54.2%		22.2%
+181
+169
+162
+166
1
1		-1.27011-1.28475-1.50287
Salernitana
Genoa		14.9%
65.4%		19.6%
+400
-121
+430
-140
0
1		-0.61646-0.58254-0.42430
Juventus
Milan		43.1%
30.3%		26.6%
+282
+118
+270
+115
1
0		-1.36082-1.34780-0.84200
Genoa
Atalanta		8.7%
78.0%		13.2%
+597
-190
+600
-195
0
2		-0.44845-0.45784-0.24794
Cagliari
Salernitana		56.0%
20.9%		23.1%
+235
+145
+225
+135
2
2		-1.20571-1.20344-1.46746
Lazio
Sassuolo		52.6%
24.4%		23.0%
+155
+186
+150
+170
2
0		-0.95547-0.96703-0.64276
Inter
Torino		75.6%
9.6%		14.8%
-138
+462
-140
+425
3
0		-0.56574-0.57868-0.27924
Napoli
Hellas Verona		54.4%
21.3%		24.3%
-153
+495
-160
+490
3
1		-0.51381-0.50547-0.60903
Fiorentina
Napoli		17.9%
59.6%		22.5%
+475
-167
+460
-175
3
1		-1.77302-1.76411-1.72126
Roma
Cagliari		64.1%
16.5%		19.3%
-119
+415
-130
+410
4
1		-0.62515-0.61037-0.44415
Atalanta
Lazio		39.8%
35.1%		25.1%
+158
+206
+160
+194
2
3		-1.14025-1.11499-1.04837
Milan
Genoa		67.1%
14.2%		18.6%
-104
+350
-107
+325
1
0		-0.69955-0.69709-0.39843
Torino
Juventus		6.4%
81.4%		12.2%
+341
+108
+325
+110
0
2		-0.75705-0.77046-0.20557
Bologna
Inter		7.4%
79.9%		12.7%
+944
-305
+825
-330
2
2		-1.77178-1.79018-2.06483
Cagliari
Fiorentina		22.1%
54.1%		23.8%
+600
-177
+610
-192
0
3		-0.46218-0.46067-0.61432
Hellas Verona
Torino		42.1%
31.3%		26.6%
+470
-129
+460
-130
0
0		-1.28717-1.26100-1.32497
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.