Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Apr 21, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hellas Verona
Cagliari		41.3%
31.6%		27.0%
+287
+120
+280
+115
1
1		-1.17736-1.20094-1.30800
Salernitana
Bologna		14.6%
66.3%		19.1%
+1200
-335
+1010
-350
0
3		-0.28650-0.28716-0.41125
Milan
Fiorentina		54.1%
22.0%		23.9%
+140
+205
+140
+200
2
1		-0.90929-0.92284-0.61402
Juventus
Lazio		46.6%
27.6%		25.8%
+143
+232
+145
+225
0
1		-1.23368-1.22044-1.28656
Atalanta
Napoli		38.7%
35.4%		25.9%
+250
+116
+240
+120
3
0		-1.28269-1.25369-0.95060
Napoli
Inter		23.4%
52.5%		24.1%
+520
-180
+550
-190
1
1		-1.51258-1.50833-1.42483
Sassuolo
Roma		19.2%
60.8%		20.0%
+785
-250
+675
-239
0
1		-0.36654-0.39315-0.49791
Milan
Hellas Verona		57.6%
19.6%		22.8%
-170
+560
-160
+535
3
1		-0.49330-0.51121-0.55224
Genoa
Juventus		6.7%
80.4%		12.9%
+740
-210
+712
-215
0
0		-1.48722-1.47793-2.05097
Torino
Udinese		27.3%
46.7%		25.9%
+180
+200
+171
+200
2
0		-1.05866-1.03744-1.29766
Udinese
Lazio		14.1%
66.0%		19.9%
+377
-115
+355
-115
2
1		-1.59214-1.56275-1.95935
Roma
Fiorentina		49.8%
25.9%		24.3%
+193
+161
+195
+155
2
2		-1.22105-1.21675-1.41622
Atalanta
Juventus		26.4%
49.7%		23.9%
+248
+126
+240
+127
2
2		-1.21983-1.20922-1.43037
Inter
Bologna		74.2%
10.3%		15.4%
+110
+310
+105
+289
1
0		-0.76038-0.76464-0.29803
Salernitana
Cagliari		15.4%
64.5%		20.1%
+375
-118
+365
-120
2
4		-0.63927-0.64747-0.43833
Torino
Napoli		10.7%
73.0%		16.3%
+460
-142
+420
-130
1
1		-1.34730-1.31561-1.81665
Load More Games

Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.15924 
Sportsbooks20-1-0 (0.000)0-1.13346 
DRatings20-2-0 (0.000)0-1.64060
-0.48137
-0.50714

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.