Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Salernitana
Napoli		4.7%
84.7%		10.6%
+1450
-490
+1225
-485
1
1		-2.01343-1.97350-2.24867
Lazio
Inter		22.9%
53.8%		23.3%
+398
-118
+390
-130
1
3		-0.63732-0.62027-0.61962
Atalanta
Torino		73.0%
11.6%		15.4%
+135
+245
+135
+215
2
1		-0.87539-0.90387-0.31537
Milan
Roma		37.5%
36.3%		26.2%
+202
+180
+185
+175
1
1		-1.12670-1.13392-1.34132
Roma
Atalanta		26.1%
51.7%		22.3%
+224
+145
+215
+140
1
3		-0.91664-0.92576-0.66058
Napoli
Juventus		21.5%
54.3%		24.1%
+165
+216
+150
+205
1
0		-0.99496-0.96551-1.53530
Spezia
Sampdoria		25.3%
50.2%		24.5%
+178
+182
+170
+170
1
1		-1.21113-1.22595-1.40699
Torino
Lazio		11.0%
73.0%		16.0%
+387
-107
+365
-115
1
0		-1.60365-1.58851-2.21156
Sassuolo
Salernitana		69.1%
13.1%		17.8%
+124
+233
+125
+210
0
3		-1.22200-1.18280-2.02913
Bologna
Hellas Verona		25.8%
49.3%		24.8%
+930
+180
+185
+170
1
2		-0.69750-1.04120-0.70682
Udinese
Roma		14.9%
65.5%		19.6%
+428
-110
+380
-115
0
3		-0.66273-0.67537-0.42259
Juventus
Sassuolo		66.5%
14.6%		18.9%
+127
+243
+120
+230
0
1		-1.25180-1.24434-1.92545
Salernitana
Torino		15.7%
64.5%		19.8%
+544
-157
+515
-160
1
1		-1.37753-1.35545-1.61903
Hellas Verona
Napoli		15.8%
62.8%		21.3%
+671
-195
+650
-200
0
0		-1.46348-1.43506-1.54463
Milan
Bologna		66.9%
14.5%		18.6%
+185
+188
+175
+185
1
1		-1.14523-1.13392-1.68298
Lazio
Spezia		68.7%
13.1%		18.2%
-123
+402
-120
+370
3
0		-0.61509-0.64527-0.37583
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.