Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 8, 2025

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Cagliari
Udinese		27.6%
45.9%		26.4%
+348
-114
+340
-110
1
1		-1.32418-1.27848-1.33071
Bologna
Lazio		11.8%
71.7%		16.5%
+230
+156
+231
+145
2
1		-1.22605-1.23131-2.13885
Sassuolo
Atalanta		13.9%
69.5%		16.7%
+830
-305
+825
-320
0
3		-0.31050-0.31787-0.36448
Juventus
Hellas Verona		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
-145
+563
-140
+470
2
2		-1.30118-1.29631-1.61833
Genoa
Napoli		11.3%
71.7%		17.0%
+450
-137
+465
-137
1
1		-1.32400-1.33332-1.77155
Salernitana
Inter		3.2%
88.9%		7.9%
+2275
-850
+1850
-800
0
4		-0.14505-0.16168-0.11770
Udinese
Juventus		8.3%
75.8%		15.8%
+775
-223
+770
-225
1
0		-2.20048-2.20138-2.48879
Napoli
Milan		30.4%
43.2%		26.4%
+315
-105
+295
-105
0
1		-0.69951-0.71885-0.83972
Atalanta
Genoa		71.6%
12.3%		16.1%
+102
+315
+100
+317
4
1		-0.73704-0.73509-0.33426
Torino
Sassuolo		22.1%
56.1%		21.8%
+131
+243
+125
+240
1
1		-1.22102-1.22387-1.52436
Inter
Roma		47.0%
28.7%		24.3%
-119
+365
-115
+350
4
2		-0.63824-0.66376-0.75424
Lazio
Cagliari		64.8%
15.6%		19.5%
+116
+272
+115
+272
3
1		-0.79995-0.80625-0.43326
Juventus
Inter		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+400
-120
+400
-125
0
1		-0.64084-0.63626-0.96982
Lazio
Atalanta		27.4%
49.3%		23.3%
+301
+105
+293
+105
1
3		-0.75035-0.76213-0.70783
Hellas Verona
Napoli		15.8%
62.8%		21.3%
+670
-205
+650
-225
1
2		-0.42123-0.41928-0.46488
Salernitana
Torino		15.7%
64.5%		19.8%
+570
-170
+550
-175
0
0		-1.43355-1.40654-1.61903
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.53152 
Sportsbooks11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.55406 
DRatings11-0-0 (1.000)0-0.32432
0.20720
0.22974

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.