Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Hellas Verona
Sampdoria		37.1%
35.1%		27.8%
+166
+215
+150
+195
1
3		-1.16325-1.13202-1.04657
Milan
Udinese		60.9%
17.1%		22.0%
+113
+295
+110
+260
1
3		-1.37884-1.33207-1.76562
Bologna
Salernitana		57.9%
20.0%		22.1%
+130
+256
+120
+260
2
2		-1.19528-1.20701-1.50860
Spezia
Sassuolo		19.1%
59.9%		21.0%
+377
-126
+350
-130
0
1		-0.60437-0.61990-0.51261
Salernitana
Milan		4.3%
86.1%		9.6%
+1200
-398
+1200
-425
1
1		-1.90267-1.85745-2.34081
Sampdoria
Juventus		7.6%
78.5%		13.9%
+969
-265
+1000
-300
2
4		-0.34075-0.33784-0.24248
Sassuolo
Roma		19.2%
60.8%		20.0%
+445
-131
+450
-145
4
3		-1.71769-1.75493-1.65214
Lazio
Bologna		64.0%
16.4%		19.6%
+156
+245
+150
+225
0
0		-1.10109-1.11590-1.62888
Atalanta
Napoli		38.7%
35.4%		25.9%
+435
-143
+425
-150
0
2		-0.55530-0.55982-1.03719
Inter
Spezia		77.7%
8.2%		14.0%
-240
+747
-245
+700
1
2		-2.16422-2.12410-2.49690
Bologna
Torino		34.8%
39.5%		25.7%
+269
+140
+250
+135
0
1		-0.89624-0.90342-0.92938
Juventus
Roma		49.0%
26.5%		24.5%
+190
+195
+185
+185
0
1		-1.10211-1.09285-1.32901
Salernitana
Sampdoria		13.2%
68.3%		18.5%
+249
+134
+245
+125
0
0		-1.19135-1.19789-1.68578
Hellas Verona
Spezia		45.9%
27.7%		26.4%
+222
+155
+205
+150
0
0		-1.16082-1.18061-1.33181
Milan
Fiorentina		54.1%
22.0%		23.9%
+181
+175
+175
+165
1
2		-1.04123-1.02666-1.51390
Udinese
Atalanta		10.8%
73.2%		16.0%
+399
-139
+375
-140
0
0		-1.45496-1.41001-1.83214
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.