Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Milan
Lazio		35.6%
37.6%		26.8%
+162
+183
+160
+180
0
4		-1.07327-1.07790-0.97891
Atalanta
Juventus		26.4%
49.7%		23.9%
+275
+120
+240
+120
3
3		-1.23898-1.24434-1.43037
Roma
Spezia		68.2%
13.9%		18.0%
-121
+448
-130
+435
2
0		-0.61795-0.61576-0.38333
Udinese
Sampdoria		33.5%
38.6%		27.9%
+135
+239
+125
+240
1
0		-0.87328-0.85616-1.09446
Torino
Fiorentina		21.7%
55.0%		23.3%
+386
-111
+340
-110
1
0		-1.59845-1.53003-1.52583
Napoli
Salernitana		80.9%
6.4%		12.7%
-273
+840
-325
+830
2
0		-0.32422-0.31631-0.21222
Fiorentina
Roma		19.4%
59.0%		21.6%
+283
+118
+265
+115
0
2		-0.80100-0.81119-0.52838
Salernitana
Atalanta		3.6%
88.5%		7.8%
+871
-281
+800
-310
2
8		-0.32336-0.32745-0.12202
Bologna
Udinese		28.9%
44.8%		26.3%
+367
-107
+310
-110
2
1		-1.56184-1.46305-1.24185
Spezia
Torino		29.3%
45.5%		25.3%
+463
-133
+425
-140
1
0		-1.75025-1.70849-1.22909
Lazio
Sassuolo		52.6%
24.4%		23.0%
-101
+285
+100
+255
2
0		-0.70991-0.74381-0.64276
Hellas Verona
Inter		10.3%
73.0%		16.6%
+890
-273
+800
-310
0
1		-0.33005-0.33066-0.31404
Juventus
Napoli		45.3%
28.1%		26.6%
+302
+110
+290
+108
1
5		-0.76083-0.76318-1.27043
Atalanta
Bologna		71.5%
12.5%		16.0%
+129
+266
+120
+230
2
1		-0.81153-0.83884-0.33558
Roma
Milan		28.8%
46.7%		24.5%
+354
-111
+340
-120
2
2		-1.32479-1.33018-1.40589
Napoli
Sampdoria		61.0%
17.7%		21.3%
-200
+682
-215
+660
2
0		-0.41053-0.42004-0.49459
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.