Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Torino
Salernitana		55.9%
21.3%		22.8%
+115
+310
+115
+270
1
1		-1.21645-1.19889-1.47990
Udinese
Juventus		8.3%
75.8%		15.8%
+438
-132
+410
-140
0
1		-0.57577-0.58749-0.27643
Sassuolo
Fiorentina		32.5%
41.3%		26.2%
+361
-121
+345
-125
1
2		-0.61670-0.63365-0.88448
Lazio
Juventus		21.0%
55.6%		23.3%
+394
-110
+295
+105
0
3		-0.66427-0.76535-0.58632
Fiorentina
Milan		16.3%
62.7%		21.0%
+458
-146
+425
-150
1
2		-0.54977-0.55982-0.46662
Torino
Roma		11.6%
72.6%		15.8%
+411
-116
+375
-120
1
1		-1.23970-1.26199-1.84427
Spezia
Hellas Verona		21.2%
54.9%		23.9%
+294
+100
+245
+110
2
1		-1.39497-1.28880-1.55211
Inter
Atalanta		38.3%
36.3%		25.4%
+135
+198
+130
+195
3
2		-0.88889-0.88317-0.95988
Sassuolo
Bologna		44.7%
30.9%		24.5%
+245
+130
+225
+125
0
3		-0.84980-0.86034-1.17529
Udinese
Napoli		13.8%
65.7%		20.5%
+575
-193
+570
-220
2
3		-0.43736-0.42520-0.41933
Juventus
Hellas Verona		67.0%
13.2%		19.8%
-165
+550
-150
+500
1
0		-0.49994-0.53365-0.40048
Sampdoria
Torino		37.1%
36.4%		26.5%
+575
-148
+475
-145
0
2		-0.53792-0.57471-1.01101
Bologna
Inter		7.4%
79.9%		12.7%
+770
-235
+725
-275
1
6		-0.36510-0.35954-0.22387
Salernitana
Fiorentina		9.5%
74.1%		16.4%
+555
-177
+515
-190
1
2		-0.47180-0.47196-0.29981
Roma
Sassuolo		51.4%
25.8%		22.7%
+120
+251
+105
+260
1
1		-1.30206-1.30280-1.48223
Udinese
Spezia		41.6%
30.7%		27.8%
+105
+287
-105
+290
1
1		-1.32069-1.31602-1.28121
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.