Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Inter
Juventus		30.4%
43.0%		26.5%
+146
+223
+145
+200
0
2		-1.19142-1.14662-0.84385
Lazio
Roma		34.6%
39.8%		25.6%
+277
+119
+255
+115
1
0		-1.34811-1.31557-1.06172
Fiorentina
Sampdoria		40.7%
32.3%		27.1%
-111
+376
-120
+345
2
0		-0.66000-0.65670-0.90012
Torino
Bologna		31.4%
43.5%		25.1%
+160
+210
+150
+200
1
2		-1.15776-1.14816-0.83287
Spezia
Milan		8.3%
77.4%		14.3%
+1406
-435
+1200
-450
1
2		-0.23145-0.24846-0.25625
Napoli
Atalanta		27.9%
47.9%		24.2%
+121
+238
+120
+215
2
1		-0.81002-0.83704-1.27705
Roma
Hellas Verona		53.3%
23.2%		23.5%
-111
+350
-115
+320
3
1		-0.65929-0.67523-0.62867
Hellas Verona
Sassuolo		30.1%
44.1%		25.8%
+218
+130
+220
+120
1
2		-0.85442-0.83986-0.81801
Napoli
Roma		35.0%
38.6%		26.4%
+134
+232
+130
+210
1
0		-0.86757-0.88312-1.05119
Lazio
Atalanta		27.4%
49.3%		23.3%
+286
+108
+275
+100
2
0		-1.36661-1.36897-1.29558
Torino
Udinese		27.3%
46.7%		25.9%
+320
+102
+320
-110
2
1		-1.45783-1.48554-1.29766
Inter
Fiorentina		62.9%
16.2%		20.8%
+131
+238
+125
+230
4
3		-0.85325-0.86022-0.46332
Spezia
Salernitana		50.9%
24.3%		24.8%
+274
+120
+260
+110
0
1		-0.80437-0.79308-1.41325
Roma
Sampdoria		60.0%
19.3%		20.8%
-141
+469
-145
+420
1
0		-0.55311-0.57408-0.51131
Milan
Hellas Verona		57.6%
19.6%		22.8%
-174
+543
-190
+550
2
1		-0.47692-0.47164-0.55224
Bologna
Napoli		11.5%
71.5%		16.9%
+1227
-371
+1100
-400
2
3		-0.26169-0.27194-0.33515
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.