Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Mar 14, 2026

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Juventus
Inter		34.5%
37.9%		27.6%
+400
-120
+400
-125
0
1		-0.64084-0.63626-0.96982
Lazio
Atalanta		27.4%
49.3%		23.3%
+301
+105
+293
+105
1
3		-0.75035-0.76213-0.70783
Hellas Verona
Napoli		15.8%
62.8%		21.3%
+670
-205
+650
-225
1
2		-0.42123-0.41928-0.46488
Salernitana
Torino		15.7%
64.5%		19.8%
+570
-170
+550
-175
0
0		-1.43355-1.40654-1.61903
Sassuolo
Bologna		44.7%
30.9%		24.5%
+505
-162
+500
-170
2
4		-0.51381-0.51089-1.17529
Roma
Salernitana		81.1%
6.7%		12.1%
-145
+450
-145
+430
2
1		-0.55099-0.57063-0.20919
Inter
Fiorentina		62.9%
16.2%		20.8%
-115
+380
-115
+351
1
0		-0.65030-0.66717-0.46332
Napoli
Lazio		33.2%
39.8%		27.1%
+245
+138
+235
+135
0
0		-1.18541-1.16575-1.30626
Bologna
Milan		10.4%
74.1%		15.5%
+445
-137
+422
-140
2
2		-1.33964-1.35251-1.86117
Udinese
Atalanta		10.8%
73.2%		16.0%
+600
-195
+557
-205
0
2		-0.43272-0.44519-0.31157
Torino
Cagliari		32.5%
41.7%		25.8%
+128
+280
+123
+272
2
1		-0.84821-0.84614-1.12498
Genoa
Salernitana		57.0%
20.4%		22.6%
+154
+225
+145
+241
2
1		-0.96630-0.93026-0.56189
Milan
Udinese		60.9%
17.1%		22.0%
-115
+333
-115
+320
3
2		-0.65977-0.67523-0.49589
Hellas Verona
Roma		17.2%
62.2%		20.6%
+720
-220
+700
-225
1
2		-0.40350-0.40414-0.47515
Sassuolo
Juventus		10.5%
73.6%		15.9%
+715
-240
+725
-264
0
3		-0.37648-0.37053-0.30610
Roma
Milan		28.8%
46.7%		24.5%
+300
+115
+285
+110
1
3		-0.78801-0.78737-0.76128
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.54952 
Sportsbooks10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.54853 
DRatings10-0-1 (0.500)0-1.43889
0.11063
0.10964

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.