Italy Serie A Predictions

Updated

Upcoming Games for February 26, 2021

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		GoalsTotal
Goals		Best
O/U

Bet Value

We use three different graphics to describe Bet Value within a matchup.

More on Bet Value
More Details
PostponedSassuolo
Torino 		43.8%
32.2%		24.0%
+116
+248
+125
+240
1.69
1.23		2.92
o2½-128
u2½+108
o2½-120
u2½+105
Games for Feb 25, 2021
Games for Nov 23, 2024

Completed Games

TimeTeamsWinDrawBest
ML		Final
Goals		Sportsbook
Log Loss		DRatings
Log Loss
Udinese
Lazio		14.1%
66.0%		19.9%
+206
+138
+215
+125
0
0		-1.31546-1.28884-1.61420
Salernitana
Inter		3.2%
88.9%		7.9%
+835
-314
+950
-360
0
2		-0.29789-0.29558-0.11770
Sassuolo
Atalanta		13.9%
69.5%		16.7%
+464
-148
+400
-150
1
2		-0.53580-0.55961-0.36448
Juventus
Torino		76.3%
8.8%		14.8%
+168
+219
+160
+205
1
0		-1.00449-1.00570-0.26986
Lazio
Fiorentina		50.8%
24.5%		24.7%
+219
+143
+200
+140
4
0		-1.16828-1.14599-0.67684
Atalanta
Udinese		65.9%
15.0%		19.1%
+206
+149
+190
+140
2
2		-1.26681-1.28844-1.65789
Hellas Verona
Salernitana		64.2%
15.0%		20.8%
+204
+156
+175
+160
1
2		-0.94207-1.00550-1.89992
Sampdoria
Bologna		35.4%
38.3%		26.2%
+305
+110
+280
+105
1
1		-1.27981-1.25727-1.33834
Juventus
Milan		43.1%
30.3%		26.6%
+280
+123
+275
+110
0
2		-0.80598-0.79125-1.19432
Inter
Sassuolo		64.9%
15.9%		19.1%
-124
+346
-130
+315
2
1		-0.60995-0.62226-0.43157
Udinese
Hellas Verona		28.7%
43.2%		28.1%
+117
+257
+115
+245
2
1		-0.79328-0.81340-1.24894
Bologna
Juventus		6.8%
80.5%		12.6%
+650
-190
+550
-210
0
3		-0.44476-0.46474-0.21648
Fiorentina
Atalanta		14.2%
67.7%		18.1%
+277
+118
+255
+115
0
1		-0.79724-0.81410-0.39078
Salernitana
Sassuolo		9.4%
75.8%		14.8%
+250
+119
+250
+105
0
5		-0.79933-0.76787-0.27703
Spezia
Lazio		9.4%
75.4%		15.2%
+689
-230
+620
-240
0
4		-0.38251-0.40004-0.28279
Roma
Inter		21.7%
56.4%		21.8%
+275
+110
+265
+105
2
1		-1.34911-1.34508-1.52717
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Season Prediction Results

 GamesRecord (Pct)No Pick

Log Loss

Log loss is used to determine the accuracy of a model.

More on Log Loss
+/-
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
Sportsbooks00-0-0 (0.000)0 
DRatings00-0-0 (0.000)0

Season Simulation

*Through all games played on or before 06/08/20
#TeamWLTPtsWinChamps LeagueEuropa LeagueRelegation
1Juventus (20-3-3, 63 pts)26.05.86.284.155.9%100.0%0.0%0.0%
2Lazio (19-2-5, 62 pts)24.75.08.382.440.1%100.0%0.0%0.0%
3Inter (16-3-6, 54 pts)22.06.49.675.74.0%97.5%2.5%0.0%
4Atalanta (14-5-6, 48 pts)19.58.89.768.20.0%80.7%18.1%0.0%
5Roma (13-7-6, 45 pts)17.810.89.462.70.0%18.4%74.2%0.0%
6Napoli (11-9-6, 39 pts)15.612.99.556.30.0%1.9%46.3%0.0%
7Milan (10-10-6, 36 pts)14.214.49.452.10.0%0.3%10.3%0.0%
8Hellas Verona (9-8-8, 35 pts)13.412.811.752.10.0%0.7%12.8%0.1%
10Bologna (9-10-7, 34 pts)12.615.010.448.20.0%0.0%2.8%0.8%
11Sassuolo (9-11-5, 32 pts)13.116.28.748.00.0%0.0%4.1%0.6%
12Cagliari (8-9-8, 32 pts)12.813.611.750.00.0%0.0%7.7%0.5%
13Fiorentina (7-10-9, 30 pts)11.514.012.547.10.0%0.0%1.3%1.0%
14Udinese (7-12-7, 28 pts)11.016.610.543.40.0%0.0%0.0%8.7%
15Torino (8-14-3, 27 pts)11.919.46.742.30.0%0.0%0.1%15.3%
16Sampdoria (7-13-5, 26 pts)11.118.18.842.20.0%0.0%0.2%15.2%
17Genoa (6-13-7, 25 pts)9.817.810.439.70.0%0.0%0.0%31.4%

Predictions Methodology

Italy’s Serie A features twenty teams that play a home-and-home series with the other nineteen teams in the league for a total of 38 rounds of football. Currently, the top two teams that finish in the Serie A standings qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. The third place team makes Champions League Qualifying and fourth and fifth place teams earn berths to the Europa League. The teams that place in the bottom three of the table are relegated to Italy’s Serie B.